Now or Never

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 12:41 pm

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

93L looks like a storm already as shear is not too strong and convection is over the center.Also some banding is evident at sat pics.The transition from cold core to warm core is almost made.If NHC dont upgrades this afternoon or tonight maybe tommorow morning then the window will close as it will enter more cooler waters.

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 12:48 pm

I agree Luis.. However I dont think they will upgrade at all.. We shall see

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 1:06 pm

SPECIAL FEATURES...
DEEP LAYERED NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN
THE NORTH- CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29.5N48W 1001 MB...MOVING NW 10 KT.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 850 NM ESE OF BERMUDA...ALSO ABOUT 1000
NM SW OF THE WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
MORE COMPACT AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 31N. CLOSER TO THE
LOW...SMALL BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90-120 N AND
E OF THE LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE
LOW FROM 32N53W TO 28N52W. OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE W
SIDE OF THE LOW TO 31N49W...THEN ESE TO TRIPLE POINT NEAR
29N42W. STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS ESE FROM TRIPLE POINT TO
26N32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG AND
JUST N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING SW OF THE TRIPLE POINT
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 43W-45W...A POSSIBLE INDICATION OF WARMER
AND UNSTABLE AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM.

Well chad at least NHC is more on line with what I am seeing.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 5:05 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 292203
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS
BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW...WHICH IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

As I said in my thread heading Now or Never.

#5 Postby **sponger** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 5:27 pm

oNE THING IS FOR SURE, SURF IS ON THE WAY. WE ARE FINALLY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM FRANCIS AND JEANNE THAT I CAN ROOT ON TROPICAL FORMATION AGAIN!

hurricanefreak1988 · #6 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 5:51 pm

Well, it looks like we'll have a thrilling finish. Can we at least get a tie with the E-Pac, or will they take back the title? It's 4th down and we've got to score now.

#7 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:34 pm

Come on! It is obviously a storm! I hope in reanalysis it will start as a storm yesterday. Still, they say it is gaining tropical characteristics.

Wnghs2007 · #8 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 6:57 pm

Yeah this is definatley looks very much like a storm. it has convection trying to wrap around the center. If it is not a storm it is atleast a depression of some kind.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:14 pm

Good round convection now.

Wnghs2007 · #10 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:Good round convection now.

Yes...Now a message to NHC "Otto, where are you!!!! OTTO???????" :lol:

LOL

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #11 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:39 pm

This is a tropical storm as far as I can see. To my knowlege this storm is most likely to be upgraded at 11pm. In the system will be made a tropical storm as early as yesterday in post update from the nhc.

Wnghs2007 · #12 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:40 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is a tropical storm as far as I can see. To my knowlege this storm is most likely to be upgraded at 11pm. In the system will be made a tropical storm as early as yesterday in post update from the nhc.

Yes I agree. Now lets see if the NHC upgrades it to that. :eek:

yoda · #13 Postby **yoda** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:46 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is a tropical storm as far as I can see. To my knowlege this storm is most likely to be upgraded at 11pm. In the system will be made a tropical storm as early as yesterday in post update from the nhc.

Mmm... Hard to see the future is, yes yes. But, upgraded this system be IMO will not.

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:49 pm

BRING IT ON!!!

Wnghs2007 · #15 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:50 pm

yoda wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is a tropical storm as far as I can see. To my knowlege this storm is most likely to be upgraded at 11pm. In the system will be made a tropical storm as early as yesterday in post update from the nhc.

Mmm... Hard to see the future is, yes yes. But, upgraded this system be IMO will not.

What...That was hard to understand. First it will be upgraded then will not. Wha???? :eek:

yoda · #16 Postby **yoda** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:53 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
yoda wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is a tropical storm as far as I can see. To my knowlege this storm is most likely to be upgraded at 11pm. In the system will be made a tropical storm as early as yesterday in post update from the nhc.

Mmm... Hard to see the future is, yes yes. But, upgraded this system be IMO will not.

What...That was hard to understand. First it will be upgraded then will not. Wha????

In English translation :lol:

The future is hard to see, but IMO, this system will not be upgraded.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #17 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:56 pm

What in the $#%$# doe's it need to be upgraded? A eye with 100 mph winds. The nhc should down grade tropical storm Grace with all the rest of the weak storms if they don't upgrade it at 11pm. End of freaking discussion.

I have a nice beach front house for you if you think that for a dollar. :lol:

Wnghs2007 · #18 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 7:56 pm

yoda wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
yoda wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is a tropical storm as far as I can see. To my knowlege this storm is most likely to be upgraded at 11pm. In the system will be made a tropical storm as early as yesterday in post update from the nhc.

Mmm... Hard to see the future is, yes yes. But, upgraded this system be IMO will not.

What...That was hard to understand. First it will be upgraded then will not. Wha????

In English translation

The future is hard to see, but IMO, this system will not be upgraded.

LOL. If thats the case then something is wrong.Because this is absoultley atleast Subtropical

Derek Ortt · #19 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 8:01 pm

if there is an upgrade, it will be at 10 not 11 since 10 is 0300 UTC

Also, this is borderline at the present time. It looks abhout as good as it did last Friday. I'd say give it until tomorrow morning befor eupgrading and let the core become warm

#20 Postby **MGC** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 8:05 pm

NHC don't want to upgrade....season ends tomorrow, time for some vacation.....MGC

Now or Never

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