TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280252Z NOV 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 0.7N7 68.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 0.7N7 68.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 1.2N3 66.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 2.2N4 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 3.1N4 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 3.8N1 59.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 0.8N8 67.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO VENT IN BOTH POLE-
WARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC
05A WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER INDIA. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 280252Z NOV 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 280300). NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6,
282100Z3, 290300Z4 AND 290900Z0.


A new record has been made!!!

[Wnghs2007]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280252Z NOV 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 0.7N7 68.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 0.7N7 68.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 1.2N3 66.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 2.2N4 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 3.1N4 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 3.8N1 59.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 0.8N8 67.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO VENT IN BOTH POLE-
WARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC
05A WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER INDIA. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 280252Z NOV 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 280300). NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6,
282100Z3, 290300Z4 AND 290900Z0.


A new record has been made!!!

Wow that is very interesting.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow nice!

[Wnghs2007]

Well have they relased a new forecast out on it?

[Aslkahuna]

Yes, a new record for latitude of formation-however, given the forecast track and intensity, Vamei is still likely to be the lowest latitude for a storm of TYPHOON intensity.

Steve

[Derecho]

Yeah, will probably be forgotten by next Summer when there's a TW in the Atlantic south of 10N and some nitwit is solemnly lecturing us all on how it can't form there because there "isn't enough Coriolois" that close to the equator.

[Derek Ortt]

this equator storm is almost the equivalent of a cane now.

Storms at this lat do tend to intensify faster than those higher (higher wind speed makes up for the lack of latitude in corolis parameter; thus, vorticity increases)

Not sure at all what JTWC is thinking only forecasting 65KT in 24 hours. I wouldnt be surprised to see this closer to 80-100 by this time tomorrow

[HurricaneBill]

this equator storm is almost the equivalent of a cane now.

Storms at this lat do tend to intensify faster than those higher (higher wind speed makes up for the lack of latitude in corolis parameter; thus, vorticity increases)

Not sure at all what JTWC is thinking only forecasting 65KT in 24 hours. I wouldnt be surprised to see this closer to 80-100 by this time tomorrow

Doesn't the JTWC based the wind speed on 10-minute average sustained winds?

Also, we can probably start calling the storm Agni now.

When Cyclone Onil formed, JTWC continued to refer to it as Cyclone 3A.

[Wnghs2007]

this equator storm is almost the equivalent of a cane now.

Storms at this lat do tend to intensify faster than those higher (higher wind speed makes up for the lack of latitude in corolis parameter; thus, vorticity increases)

Not sure at all what JTWC is thinking only forecasting 65KT in 24 hours. I wouldnt be surprised to see this closer to 80-100 by this time tomorrow

Doesn't the JTWC based the wind speed on 10-minute average sustained winds?

Also, we can probably start calling the storm Agni now.

When Cyclone Onil formed, JTWC continued to refer to it as Cyclone 3A.

Good post. Welcome Agni!!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

lt uses 1 min.

they always underforecast intensity but over report current intensity