A non-tropical area of low pressure has intensified this morning in the East Central Atlantic and it is currently located over 1000 miles to the ESE of Bermuda. This particular low pressure system has kept my eyes a little more focused on it than previous cold-core low pressure systems this past month.
Let's examine its potential:
1) It is located on marginally warm SSTs (nearing 80*).
2) It has intensified and become better organized (non-tropical wise) quite markedly since yesterday.
3) It has a self-inflicted shear free environment and no signs of inmediate disruption (next 24-36 hours).
4) Its final movement will determine its fate.
Right now, the thinking is that it will starting transferring all that energy toward the frontal bounday that is currently moving through Bermuda. However, there is a chance that the front will miss it and cause the low to begin moving erratically. If this is the case, we could very well see a transition take place similar to 2001's Olga. Next 12-24 hours will be a "monitoring phase".
All I can say is... This could be the last hope for the people who desperately need something to monitor during the holiday shopping days...
Interesting Cold-Core Low in the East Central Atlantic...
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Hyperstorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1500
- Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
- Location: Ocala, FL
-
Wnghs2007
- Category 5
- Posts: 6836
- Age: 36
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
- Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
- Contact:
Re: Interesting Cold-Core Low in the East Central Atlantic..
Hyperstorm wrote:A non-tropical area of low pressure has intensified this morning in the East Central Atlantic and it is currently located over 1000 miles to the ESE of Bermuda. This particular low pressure system has kept my eyes a little more focused on it than previous cold-core low pressure systems this past month.
Let's examine its potential:
1) It is located on marginally warm SSTs (nearing 80*).
2) It has intensified and become better organized (non-tropical wise) quite markedly since yesterday.
3) It has a self-inflicted shear free environment and no signs of inmediate disruption (next 24-36 hours).
4) Its final movement will determine its fate.
Right now, the thinking is that it will starting transferring all that energy toward the frontal bounday that is currently moving through Bermuda. However, there is a chance that the front will miss it and cause the low to begin moving erratically. If this is the case, we could very well see a transition take place similar to 2001's Olga. Next 12-24 hours will be a "monitoring phase".
All I can say is... This could be the last hope for the people who desperately need something to monitor during the holiday shopping days...
Well thanks for finding something for us to look at. And great discussion by the way.
0 likes
-
Hurricanehink
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2044
- Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
- Location: New Jersey
Oh wow, it is looking a little like Olga. Good job for keeping an eye even when we all say the season is over. After all, there are 4 days left... The models are following... AVN brings it westward, strengthening, to Bermuda and loses it after about a week, CMC brings a weak area west-northwestward, JMA loops it southward and brings it northward as a strong extratropical low, NOGAPS brings it west-southwestward then northwestward as a weak storm, and UKMET loops it and brings a weak storm out to sea.
0 likes
-
Anonymous
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Jeb wrote:I wonder if this low could hit the east coast and interact with cold air and bring us a rare tropical hybrid system snow?
-Jeb
Chances are about 0.000000000000000001% of that system making it to the US. That strong storm system responsible for the SVR across the Deep South continues to blast a front into the Central ATL, and with it, only has about a 24-36 hour window to acquire subtropical characteristics ...
The low itself, and I will, for now, call it a well-developed gale center.
SF
0 likes
-
Wnghs2007
- Category 5
- Posts: 6836
- Age: 36
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
- Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
- Contact:
Stormsfury wrote:Jeb wrote:I wonder if this low could hit the east coast and interact with cold air and bring us a rare tropical hybrid system snow?
-Jeb
Chances are about 0.000000000000000001% of that system making it to the US. That strong storm system responsible for the SVR across the Deep South continues to blast a front into the Central ATL, and with it, only has about a 24-36 hour window to acquire subtropical characteristics ...
The low itself, and I will, for now, call it a well-developed gale center.
SF
I agree with you very much SF. The chances of it making it to the us are very slim. Hopefully it will become a Sub Tropical storm but somehow I doubt it.
PS:Im still waiting on my CAD....Make with the CADS, CAD BOY!!!!!!LOL Read post in The Winter Forum EUS even thread.
0 likes
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
I agree with you very much SF. The chances of it making it to the us are very slim. Hopefully it will become a Sub Tropical storm but somehow I doubt it.
PS:Im still waiting on my CAD....Make with the CADS, CAD BOY!!!!!!LOL Read post in The Winter Forum EUS even thread.
Well, patience, patience, patience ... for now, enjoy the transient shot of cold air before the next system (and strong storm potential yet again) ...
SF
0 likes