Any initial thoughts about 2005 season?

[cycloneye]

As the 2004 hurricane season officially comes to a close on the 30th the focus in the next few months will be on looking at the factors that may make the 2005 season active,average or below average.I will make a poll by april to get the forecast numbers from all the members who want to participate like the one I did this season by april where 4 members came very close to the real 2004 numbers 14/9/6.



My brief initial take about the 2005 season is another active season in tap as the string of years of active seasons will continue as the parameters are pointing that way starting with ENSO which will come out of the present weak el nino stage by next spring turning into a neutral status causing that the ENSO factor will not be important like it is now that capped the 2004 season since mid october when the weak el nino appeared at the equatorial pacific.Another factor that will make the 2005 season an active one is the above normal warm sst's in the atlantic caused by the atlantic thermoline circulation that will continue to move warmer than normal waters thru the basin.The QBO winds are poised to blow from the east not being so favorable as in 2004 when 6 major canes formed caused by the west QBO.I will elaborate much more when I make my only forecast for the 2005 season by mid april but my numbers for now are 12/7/3.

[Andrew92]

DISCLAIMER: This is coming from an AMATEUR, not a professional, and is really almost strictly a guess; however, not totally. In my hard of hearts, I really think NO ONE knows what 2005 will be like exactly (with absolutely no offense meant to the professional mets).

My initial take for 2005 is 13/7/3. I think the season will, like 2004, have a slow start, but I think Arlene will come in July. However, 2005 will have a different kind of slow start than 2004. In 2004, our first storm didn't come until August, but it also became the season's first major hurricane. I think that while there may be one or two storms in July 2005, our first hurricane will not come until mid-August (I pick Dennis as the first hurricane).

Once the season gets going, some storms will get going, but it won't be anything like 2004. For starters, I don't think there will be as many long-trackers as 2004 had. Also, I have been thinking for some time that we won't have as many majors next year. At the same time, we won't be as inactive as 2002 was. And I CERTAINLY don't see eight storms in one month in 2005 (e.g. August 2004).

I think two or three hurricanes will hit, with one being a major. I also think (and I've been predicting this over the last couple years) there will be a threatening storm in October.

Now watch this "forecast" totally be blown.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

DISCLAIMER: This is coming from an AMATEUR, not a professional, and is really almost strictly a guess; however, not totally. In my hard of hearts, I really think NO ONE knows what 2005 will be like exactly (with absolutely no offense meant to the professional mets).

My initial take for 2005 is 13/7/3. I think the season will, like 2004, have a slow start, but I think Arlene will come in July. However, 2005 will have a different kind of slow start than 2004. In 2004, our first storm didn't come until August, but it also became the season's first major hurricane. I think that while there may be one or two storms in July 2005, our first hurricane will not come until mid-August (I pick Dennis as the first hurricane).

Once the season gets going, some storms will get going, but it won't be anything like 2004. For starters, I don't think there will be as many long-trackers as 2004 had. Also, I have been thinking for some time that we won't have as many majors next year. At the same time, we won't be as inactive as 2002 was. And I CERTAINLY don't see eight storms in one month in 2005 (e.g. August 2004).

I think two or three hurricanes will hit, with one being a major. I also think (and I've been predicting this over the last couple years) there will be a threatening storm in October.

Now watch this "forecast" totally be blown.

-Andrew92

Good brief anaylisis Andrew and about your disclaimer you are correct saying that nobody knows exactly what will happen and I add even the best pro mets can go wrong as in the past has happened with someone we know Dr Gray.Andrew at the end you said that the forecast will be blown but what I see in your post is a good take about the 2005 season that almost coincides with my initial numbers.About landfall forecasts I will touch that in my april forecast

[Scorpion]

I think more majors is not out of the question. Probably 5 major and 2 or 3 longtracker, with 1 being a fish.

[Stormsfury]

I think more majors is not out of the question. Probably 5 major and 2 or 3 longtracker, with 1 being a fish.

QBO EAST phases do not favor as many MH's as QBO WEST, but during strong La Niña seasons (1996) we had 6 also in an extremely strong QBO East phase ...

QBO in 1996 ... East the ENTIRE year ... strongly so during the heart of the tropical season ... and season totals were 13 TS, 9 H, 6 MH ...

Code: Select all

1996   -5.79   -6.90   -9.92  -11.08  -14.88  -17.03  -23.93  -25.85  -26.02  -23.40  -18.08   -9.86

This year, I don't foresee any moderate/strong La Niña, but more of a return to a neutral ENSO state by the time the season starts ... current ideas (w/out revealing TOO MUCH information right now, since I'm still putting some of it together would inidicate a QBO East, NEUTRAL ENSO, stronger than normal ATL thermaline circulation continuing, and general circulation patterns would indicate a higher than average number of tropical storms, but only about half of those becoming hurricanes (between 40-50%). 2004 saw about a 66% ratio or 2/3 of the tropical cyclones becoming hurricanes (something I clearly expected back in my prelim and final releases in December 2003, and May 2004) ...

SF

[MGC]

I'm sure I will under forecast the number of named systems again in 2005 just like I have done the past few seasons.......MGC

[Stormsfury]

I'm sure I will under forecast the number of named systems again in 2005 just like I have done the past few seasons.......MGC

LOL ... don't feel bad ... I did the same thing the last 2 years also, despite still going with active ones ...

[HurricaneBill]

This name list tends to be on the lighter side of activity.

The list has averaged about 9.25 named storms.
Least: 1987 6 named storms
Most: 1999 12 named storms

Also, the 2005 list has the distinction of having the least amount of names retired from it. No names were retired from it until 1999, when Floyd and Lenny were removed.

Interestingly, Emily and Bret are the only major hurricanes to hit the U.S. and NOT be retired.

Anyway, here's the rundown on the names and their pasts.

Arlene:
Arlene holds the title for most used name in the Atlantic. Arlene has been used 8 times. Frances tied the record this year but is being retired. Arlene will extend her record to 9 times in 2005.

A pre-1979 name, Arlene was first used in 1959. She was used again in 1963, 1967, 1971, 1981, 1987, 1993, and 1999. Arlene has reached hurricane status 3 out of 8 times. The highest she went was Category 2.

Arlene tends to either start the season early in June or late in mid-August. Arlene has twice been a pre-season storm in May.

Arlene doesn't seem to have a desire for retirement. She's usually a fish when a hurricane. If she hits land, she does so as a tropical storm.

Bret:
Bret has been used 4 times. 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999. 1 out of those 4 times was as a hurricane. 3 out of 4 times, Bret has struck land.

Bret might possibly try for another shot at retirement and silence the "hitting a ranch" jokes.

Bret tends to be a torrential rainmaker. There has not been a "B" hurricane since Bret in 1999.

Cindy:
Another pre-1979 name, Cindy has been used 6 times. 1959, 1963, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999. Cindy has been a hurricane 3 out of 6 times. Twice, Cindy has struck the U.S. as a hurricane.

Could Cindy follow Claudette and Charley to a U.S. hurricane landfall and make it 3 "C" storms in a row?

Dennis:
Dennis has been used 4 times. 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999. Dennis has been a hurricane 2 out of 4 times.

Dennis tends to be a fish. However, 1999 was an exception.

Emily:
Emily has been used 4 times. 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999. Emily was a hurricane 3 out of 4 times.

Emily might pose a threat as she has hit land as a major hurricane twice. Despite this, Emily remains on the list and she might be getting irritated by this.

Franklin:
Franklin is the replacement name for Floyd. In their first outing, replacement names don't tend to be bad storms. Of course, Michelle in 2001 was an exception.

Gert:
Gert has been used 3 times. 1981, 1993, 1999. All 3 times, Gert was a hurricane of Category 2 or higher. In 1999, she was a Category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph.

Gert tends to be a fish. In 1993, however, she did take a path similar to 1990's Diana into the Mexican mainland.

Harvey:
Harvey has been used 3 times. 1981, 1993, 1999. Twice, Harvey has been a hurricane. Harvey also tends to be a fish.

Irene:
Another pre-1979 name, Irene has been used 4 times. 1959, 1971, 1981, 1999. 3 times, Irene was a hurricane. Irene has struck land 3 times.

With a tendency to be a hurricane and also to hit land, Irene poses a threat. Not only that, Irene is an "I" storm. Since 2000, every "I" storm has been a major hurricane. Since 2001, every "I" storm has been retired. Since 1990, every "I" storm has been a hurricane.

Jose:
Jose has been used twice, 1981 and 1999. Jose has been a hurricane once. Jose tends to be a gentler storm.

Katrina:
Katrina has been used twice, 1981 and 1999. Like Jose, she has been a hurricane only once. However, Katrina has twice struck land.

Lee:
Lee is the replacement name for Lenny. As I said before, replacement names do not tend to be bad storms on their first outing. However, exceptions have occurred.

[Stormsfury]

wow .... great post, HurricaneBill ...

[cycloneye]

I agree with SF great informative and complete post from HurricaneBill.

[Wnghs2007]

I would say 14/7/3 for next year as early...VERY Early Thoughts...but we will have to see later on towards Late April or Early may when we have a little better handle atleast for me. On things to come.

[cycloneye]

Any more preliminary thoughts for the 2005 season? I am almost at the same thinking as Dr Gray with 12/7/3 with the doc at 11/6/3.I concide with him about a less active season than 2004 but a slightly above season with less majors than in 2004.But of course as the months go by more data will be available about all the factors and by early april my only seasonal forecast will be posted.