Tropical Storm Muifa at South China Sea

[James]

Yep, there can be some intense storms in these late months of the year. Remember CAT 5 Lupit last December?

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 009A RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 14.4N9 126.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N9 126.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 15.1N7 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 15.1N7 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.6N1 123.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 13.9N3 121.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.0N3 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 10.6N7 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 10.0N1 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.6N1 126.0E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), HAS BEEN RELOCATED 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE 151800Z5 NOV 04 WARNING POSITION, APPROX-
IMATELY 300 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. TS 29W HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45 AND 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW CLEARLY
REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 152133Z5 QUIKSCAT IMAGE
SUPPORTS THIS RELOCATED POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6,
161500Z3, 162100Z0 AND 170300Z1.//


Center relocated more to the north from previous position.

[/b]

[cycloneye]

RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 010 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 14.7N2 124.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N2 124.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 15.0N6 123.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.9N4 123.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.4N9 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 13.5N9 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.2N5 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 10.8N9 117.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 10.3N4 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.8N3 124.5E2.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO A
POSITION 90 WEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER POSITION,
APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. TS 29W
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
TS 29W HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3,
162100Z0, 170300Z1 AND 170900Z7.//

[Gorky]

Here's the latest update. Interesting to note it will come very close to typhoon strength before hitting the Philipines, and is also now forecast to intensify to a typhoon after entering the SCS

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- NEAR 14.7N2 123.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N2 123.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.8N3 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.6N1 122.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.0N5 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.3N7 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 11.7N9 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 10.6N7 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 10.1N2 111.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.7N2 123.6E2.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROX-
IMATELY 175 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z0 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0, 170300Z1,
170900Z7 AND 171500Z4.//

[cycloneye]

Now it is forecast to become a typhoon at the China Sea.Manila will be pounded with torrential rains and strong winds.

[Aslkahuna]

Strongest winds I've seen so far in the Philippines was a 10 minute sustained wind of 40mph on Catanduanes Island where there has also been flooding and landslide activity. Daet on the SE coast of Luzon was reporting a 10 minute wind of 31 mph. Ten minute winds are roughly 17% lower than the one minute average we use in the US.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Strongest winds I've seen so far in the Philippines was a 10 minute sustained wind of 40mph on Catanduanes Island where there has also been flooding and landslide activity. Daet on the SE coast of Luzon was reporting a 10 minute wind of 31 mph. Ten minute winds are roughly 17% lower than the one minute average we use in the US.

Steve

Any observations from Manila?

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, if thay black dot on the track map is supposed to represent Manila, it's in the wrong place-it's where Subic Bay is located. Manila is on the eastern shore of the Bay SE of the Peninsula where that dot is located (that Peninsula BTW is Bataan). There are some fairly high mountains to the east of Manila so a track like that is not likely to give very strong winds to most of the city. Given the size of Metro Manila, eastern and southern portions of the Metro area will see the strongest weather from Muifa (PAGASA Name: Unding). Manila gets its strongest winds from off the Bay to the SW-W.

Steve

[cycloneye]

Ok Steve thanks for that.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.5N0 123.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N0 123.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.4N9 122.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.2N7 121.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 13.8N2 121.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.2N6 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 11.6N8 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 10.5N6 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 10.1N2 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.5N0 123.3E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 14 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z1, 170900Z7, 171500Z4 AND 172100Z1.//

Moving slowly westward.Forecast to become a typhoon when it gets into the warm waters of the China Sea.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 14.5N0 123.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N0 123.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.4N9 122.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.1N6 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.8N2 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 13.0N4 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 11.3N5 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 10.5N6 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 10.1N2 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.5N0 123.3E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO CYCLE AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 14 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z7, 171500Z4, 172100Z1 AND 180300Z2.//

Almost a typhoon now at 70 mph.

[Gorky]

Muifa has done what most didn't expect and strengthened to a typhoon prior to making landfall on the Philipines. It has infact been almost stationary for the last day and will take a couple more days to clear the area probably.


WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 29W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.6N1 123.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N1 123.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.6N1 123.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.5N0 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 14.1N6 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.5N9 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 12.2N5 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 11.2N4 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 10.9N0 110.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.6N1 123.4E0.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
170530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS, HOWEVER RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE
POSSIBLE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z4, 172100Z1, 180300Z2 AND 180900Z8.//

[cycloneye]

Not good for Luzon where with the very slow steering flow it will move slow and increase the threat for massive floodings.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- NEAR 15.2N8 123.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 123.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.9N4 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.6N1 123.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.3N8 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 13.6N0 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 12.3N6 117.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 11.7N9 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 11.8N0 109.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.1N7 123.8E4.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN A QUASI-STATIONARY LOOP AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 171130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW
TRACKING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AS IT MAKES A QUASI-STATIONARY
LOOP IN TRACK. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THE
PRESENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1,
180300Z2, 180900Z8 AND 181500Z5.//


Muifa is more stronger now at 75KT at this warning #15.

[cycloneye]

This typhoon continues to intensify and when the Warning #16 comes out soon the maximun winds will be increased to 90Kt.

[Gorky]

I can't believe floydbusters wild stab at 100kt by 17th is actually looking more and more possible. At the next update it will still be 17th in USA so he may be kinda sorta right. and to think he was almost retracted his wild unubstantiated guess a few days ago This sort of intensification is not uncommon with pacific storms. It's ability to intensify whilst this close to land certainly surprises me though.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 15.4N0 123.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N0 123.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 15.6N2 123.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 15.5N1 123.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 15.0N6 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.2N7 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 12.8N1 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 11.4N6 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 11.0N2 107.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.5N1 123.7E3.
TYPHOON (TY) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90, AND 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPID INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS THE FORMATION OF A SMALL, RAGGED EYE.
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 15
FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2, 180900Z8, 181500Z5 AND 182100Z2.//

The typhoon is intensifying fast now 90KT.But it is crawling in that area.

[HURAKAN]

I think it will be around 100 kts on the 17th or sooner. Hold me to that.

Hurray, hurray for Floydbuster, this is your best forecast ever I think.

[Aslkahuna]

Muifa is a small storm in size and is not interacting with land to any great degree so the intensification is not that unusual. In 1970, a smallish typhoon Patsy bombed out to 135kt just off the coast of Luzon in November of that year and glided right over Manila a short time later with little loss in intensity literally tearing the city apart.

Steve

[weatherwindow]

noted the vietnam landfall on the 22nd...went thru two landfalls while there in 68 and 69. piqued my curiosity and here i am 30 years later and still interested:)