When will Jeanne report come out?

[Scorpion]

When will the Jeanne report come out? What will the sustained winds at landfall be? I believe that they will be in the 125-130 mph range.

[yoda]

When will the Jeanne report come out? What will the sustained winds at landfall be? I believe that they will be in the 125-130 mph range.

Jeanne a CAT 3? It will be close. I see a 110-115...

[HurricaneBill]

Jeanne a CAT 3? It will be close. I see a 110-115...

No, I think Derek said that there was a small area in the eyewall that had sustained winds of at least 120 mph.

I'm thinking that Jeanne was probably stronger than Ivan at landfall.

[HURAKAN]

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...27.2 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.

[Derek Ortt]

I have seen some evidence to support 125-130 m.p.h. for jeanne

[Anonymous]

I think:

Charley: 150 mph (CONFIRMED)
Frances: 105 mph (LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 110 MPH)
Ivan: Tough Call, I say 120 mph
Jeanne: Offically was 120 mph, I think more like 125-130 mph.

I have to say, Jeanne was on her way to being a category 4 hurricane. I have no doubt, had she not gone under the ERC, she would have been 140 mph, and Damage like Amdrew would have occured. Do you all agree?

[The Big Dog]

I have to say, Jeanne was on her way to being a category 4 hurricane. I have no doubt, had she not gone under the ERC, she would have been 140 mph, and Damage like Amdrew would have occured. Do you all agree?

But now, it's almost universally accepted that Andrew was in the 165-175 range. So no, there would not have been Andrew-level damage. More sparsely populated where Jeanne went in, too.

[Derek Ortt]

had jeanne not went through the eye wall replacement cycle, the storm would almost certainly have been at LEAST at Charlley's intensity at landfall, if not a category 5 hurricane. Despite going through that replacement, the hurricane still was able to make landfall with winds in the 120-130 m.p.h. range and intensify during the cycle.

I will say this much about Jeanne, I am glad that it grew in size so that the beta effect took over. Had it have remained as small as it was 24-48 hours before landfall, this thing was coming inot the center of Ft Lauderdale and that southern eye wall likely would have moved over Miami

[HurricaneBill]

Is it me or was Jeanne kinda underrated media-wise?

I mean, there wasn't much time to hype up Charley.

Frances and Ivan were definitely hyped up.

Aside from the Haiti disaster, the media's attitude toward Jeanne seemed pretty much "she's coming, she's here, she's left".

I'm sure this was probably a much different story in Florida.

Maybe the media was just sick of hurricanes.

I truly do think Jeanne was an underrated storm. She just barely survived Hispaniola, did a loop and hit Florida like Betsy, and Jeanne was also the first major hurricane to make landfall on the east coast of Florida since Andrew in 1992.

[James]

The media are just like that sometimes. FOX News had pretty good coverage when Jeanne was going ashore.

[Scorpion]

Thats very odd she underwent an ERC. Her eye never really shrank enough to the point that a normal ERC would occur. Thats a great thing though. 125-130 is alot better than 150-160.

[Derek Ortt]

Jeanne was very well covered by the national media, much better so than Frances, IMO. We didnt have any side tracked distractions, like Clinton's heart surgery. It was just the hurricane and nothing else. Only thing that could have been better was maybe Dan Rather in Florida, but he kind of blew the budget on Frances

[Blown Away]

The eyewall of Jeanne was much stronger than Frances. The
duration of winds from Frances was exhausting. If Frances was truly 105 mph??, Jeanne had to be at least 120 mph. The eyewall of Jeanne was much more extreme than Frances.

[Anonymous]

Do you really think Jeanne might have been a category 5? Ok, so say Jeanne hit at strong cat. 4/cat. 5...is damage over Andrew?

[SouthernWx]

Jeanne was also the first major hurricane to strike the Florida peninsula in September since Betsy in 1965; also the first major landfalling hurricane along the Florida east coast NORTH of Miami since August 1949 (hurricane King moved inland over downtown Miami; Donna, Betsy, and Andrew all passed south of Miami).

[James]

Sounds like we broke a considerable number of records in 2004.

[Derek Ortt]

I think based upon atmospheric conditions, Jeanne would have easily been at least as intense as was Charley, and likely more so since it had 12 hours of rediculously favorable conditions. The outflow of Jeanne was so much better defined than that of Charley and Andrew, so we would have almost certainly seen something truly horrific had it not have been for the EWRC.

As for the damage, remember that Andrew is <b>AT LEAST</b> 165 m.p.h. and was likely closer to 180 m.p.h. because the landfall intensity of 165 <b>DOES NOT</b> include the intensification in the final hour. 165 is the wind speed from an hour before landfall. Based upon the gradient wind equation, Andrew almost certainly was between 175-180 m.p.h. at landfall so Jeanne may not have caused the amount of damage that Andrew did when it made landfall

[Anonymous]

I think what COULD HAVE HAPPENED THIS YEAR:

Charley
HIT TAMPA AS A CAT 4/5

Frances
HIT FL AS A CAT 4/5

Ivan
HIT New Orleans as a CAT 3/4/5

Jeanne
NO ERC....FL...SOL

[Derek Ortt]

had charley have hit tampa, it would not have hit Orlando, Daytona, and the Carolinas. Florida got a wash with that one.

A wash also with Frances as although it came in at 90-95KT, the thing wouldnt go away, so the damage was much higher than would be expected for a strong cat 2 storm (damage was quite a bit more than the damage from Hugo)

the sudden collapse of Ivan saved some hyde, but the surge didnt collapse, plus, that area is extremely surge and wave prone anyways, which is why Georges produced a comparable surge

Jeanne: the hyde was spared big time. That had me conceding the 100 billion dollar cane. Thank you God for the EWRC and the increase in size resulting in the beta effect sparing the cities of Miami, Ft Lauderale and West Palm

[HurricaneBill]

Quite a few storms have collapsed prior to landfall on the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Ethel 1960
Hurricane Hilda 1964
Hurricane Betsy 1965
Hurricane Carmen 1974
Hurricane Kate 1985
Hurricane Andrew 1992
Hurricane Opal 1995
Hurricane Lili 2002
Hurricane Ivan 2004

Texas coast:
Hurricane Carla 1961
Hurricane Beulah 1967
Hurricane Allen 1980
Hurricane Bret 1999

Hey Derek, people were talking about the similar situations with Lili and Hilda. Both fell apart prior to landfall on Louisiana. But personally, I think Carmen seems more like a similar situation to Lili. Do you agree?