NEW GFDL: Otto to move South, NE, then west...

[Anonymous]

The new GFDL has Tropical Storm Otto doing a loop in the Caribbean, and then moving back west. The farther west it moves..it will have to go through shear, but there are decreasing shear and more favorable conditions as well as warmer waters to the west.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation

[The Big Dog]

So basically it's gonna fart around in the Carribean for six days? Ok.

[cyclonaut]

{IF} it develops November is the time for some of the whackiest tracks!

[yoda]

The new GFDL has Tropical Storm Otto doing a loop in the Caribbean, and then moving back west. The farther west it moves..it will have to go through shear, but there are decreasing shear and more favorable conditions as well as warmer waters to the west.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation

Hurricane Otto to TS Otto to no Otto....

Sorry Mike, just can't see anything developing here.

[Brent]

It's not Otto and it's not going to be.

[The Big Dog]

The 18Z run can't even find it after 2 1/2 days.

I'm going to bed.

[george_r_1961]

There is no Otto..and I dont feel its wise to try to forecast the movement of a storm that doesnt even exist. Im not saying development wont occur; it is remotely possible.

[vbhoutex]

It is not a TS or TC even and is not forecast to be. DO NOT CALL IT SOMETHING THAT IT IS NOT. WE DO NOT ALLOW POSTING OF DISINFORMATION AT THIS SITE AND YOU KNOW IT!!!

All it is is a model and its interpretation of what could happen. HUGE DIFFERENCE!!!

[cycloneye]

Where is Otto? There is no defined LLC in the eastern caribbean.Please Floydbuster dont post disinformation that tends to confuse many members especially newbies.

[Aquawind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST THU NOV 11 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT
DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFAT2 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC.

ANOTHER POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[george_r_1961]

I think its time to concentrate on winter weather instead if chasing phantom tropical cyclones.

[Brent]

I think its time to concentrate on winter weather instead if chasing phantom tropical cyclones.

[Brent]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT
DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

AKA.... the NHC doesn't expect it to develop.