Recon missions to fly into 91L in caribbean

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 091530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL
1030 AM EST TUE 09 NOV 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 10/1100Z  TO 11/1100Z NOV 2004
         TCPOD NUMBER.....04-164

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
      FLIGHT ONE                    FLIGHT TWO
      A. 10/2000Z                   A. 11/1200Z
      B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
      C. 10/1430Z                   C. 11/0600Z
      D. 16.0N 69.0W                D. 17.5N 67.5W
      E. 10/1930Z TO 10/2330Z       E. 11/1130Z 11/1530Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE FIX AT 12/0000Z IF
      SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT

The first mission will be tommorow afternoon at 2000z.I thought that they would send a plane today.

[PurdueWx80]

Any word as to if they'll be going out today? I guess tomorrow is soon enough, but one would think that the convection might organize and develop (and affect PR) before tomorrow afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Any word as to if they'll be going out today? I guess tomorrow is soon enough, but one would think that the convection might organize and develop (and affect PR) before tomorrow afternoon.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
15.5N AND 75.0W AT 10/2000Z.


The above came out yesterday and there was no mention about going out today.

[PurdueWx80]

That's what I figured.

Upon closer investigation of the high-res visible loops, there is a very obvious circulation within the convection. There are too many cirrus right now to see if it is surface based, but I definitely see cyclonic motion.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
For new users of that site, just click on 100%, animation, and then click over the clouds SW of PR.

[sponger]

WOW! i SEE IT AS WELL. ANY SHIPS IN THE AERA THAT WE CAN PULL A SURFACE OB FOR?

[wxman57]

Just one or two ships in the area. Here's a plot of 12Z ship data (yellow) and METARS (pink) overlaid on a visible satellite shot. No sign at all of a low level or lower-level circulation, either in the obs or in satellite loops. Might be a weak area of lower pressure near the trailing end of the front. That's about it. Wind shear appears to be quite strong in the region as well. Looks more like a baroclinic (frontal low) type development than anything tropical at this point.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

[Steve H.]

Latest CMC kinda stalls it north of Puerto Rico; UKMET 12Z also does

[StormChasr]

Just gonna be one big mess of rain, and some gales. Doesn't look like it will convect and survive the shear that's there, and all the cold fronts moving around the Southeastern part of the world.

[PurdueWx80]

I see one front, but temperatures and dew points across the entire Caribbean are very much indicative of a tropical (warm, very moist) atmosphere, so the air mass currently over the Southeastern US has been modified by the ocean surface. Any time you have a MASSIVE high pressure system moving across the CONUS during the hurricane season, you have to watch out for trouble. It just so happens we have a massive high in the eastern US right now.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully 91L gets better organized.

[The Big Dog]

Hopefully 91L gets better organized.

Yeah, we could all use another landfalling hurricane. Haven't you had enough for one year up there in Jupiter?

[StormChasr]

Yeah, we could all use another landfalling hurricane. Haven't you had enough for one year up there in Jupiter?

AMEN, brother. The trio of Charley, Frances, and Jeanne was good enough for me.

[sponger]

Thanks for the post wxman! I wonder what tommorow's flight will show. Time will tell!