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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF COLOMBIA TODAY...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER HSFAT2 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC.
ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART[b][/b]I am very surprised first the invest going up and now I am more worried about the track of it going over Puerto Rico.It is take the look of a comashape system meaning it is organizing but the question is if it is a baroclinic,hybrid,subtropical or a pure tropical system taking shape.I go with baroclinic at this time.
