Global Model Consensus Building about low east of Bahamas?

[Anonymous]

NOGAPS shows what the CMC had been showing. TC moving NE across Hait then slowing and maybe nudging back west near 144hrs. Wouldnt it likely pass north between the 2 Highs--say move from the Bahamas to the outer banks or even farther recurve than that beyond 144 hrs?

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nog ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

It depends on the timing.If this low forms before the strong high gets into the western atlantic it will go NE out to sea but if the low is more slow moving from the caribbean it may be blocked by the big ridge.But all is speculation at this time however let's see in the comming days how the models show this and if the GFS joins the other globals to then have a real consensus.

[StormChasr]

I am strictly an amateur, but the latest infared has it looking as if it is heading due West, across to the Pacific.

[Anonymous]

I am strictly an amateur, but the latest infared has it looking as if it is heading due West, across to the Pacific.

IMHO, thunderstorms are stationary and being sheared northeast right now---as coldfront comes in from the northwest which would pull the system northeast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

This 00z run from CMC shows a very strong low pressure but moving NE from the greater antilles.This model no longer has it moving west towards Florida.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

This 00z Nogaps run has a little bit more weaker low pressure but moving it more to the east than CMC as it crosses Puerto Rico moving NE again no west movement to Florida.GFS at 00z run shows a weak low in caribbean moving NE towards Puerto Rico .In summary this in my opinion wont be a pure tropical system IF it develops but as CMC shows a hybrid or subtropical system but time will tell in the comming days.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

This is the only model that shows a low pressure moving west towards the Bahamas but it is a weak low.Again a hybrid or subtropical low may come out of this but nothing pure tropical.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

This 12z Nogaps run shows the broad low moving over Puerto Rico into the atlantic to the NE.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/avntc2.c ... =Animation

Finnally the 12z GFS comes in agreement with the other global models but it doesn't show a strong low at all instead a broad weak low moving thru Puerto Rico to the NE.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

This model forms a weak low NE of Puerto Rico diferent from the other models which for a broad low in the caribbean.But NONE of the models have this low moving towards Florida.