Hurricane OTTO????

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:34 pm

Question for this upcoming week. Waters are warm:

And we may see this:

Any thoughts? HOLD ON...Lemme put on a jacket to prepare for the throwing of tomatoes.

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:39 pm

Jacket on? :eek:

1.) What model are you basing this off of? Or is this or your own forecast?

2.) I hope one is not using just the CMC/JMA/NOGAPS ensembles/solution...

3.) Why such a small tight cane? We have no clue how big or small this will be, even if it does develop...

4.) With the high to the north, dry air entrainment would be possible due to the cyclonic flow (I hope I am saying this right)

5.) Shear check!!! (Haven't checked it... but I am guessing its low)

6.) Favorable conditions... are all criteria met?

7.) I can't buy the CMC/NOGAPS solution of a hurricane or a major one, it looks ridiculous.

Sorry its so long... :eek:

StormChasr · #3 Postby **StormChasr** » Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:39 pm

Where? The tropical potential is being sheared, and crossing over to the Pacific http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:48 pm

Far reaching trough extending from the vortex over Hudson Bay and associated full latitude trough well down into the W Caribbean ... SLP in response to a frontal boundary/boundary like structure ...

In fact, conditions in the upper levels get much worse with time, with W winds at the jet stream level in excess of 60 KTS by Day 7 ... with another core from the SBJ punching through the SE as high as 128 KTS ...

00z CMC also showing the trough in SW ATL extending into the Caribbean thru the period. Progressive nature of the CMC is overdoing the phase idea ...

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:59 pm

NOGAPS, also a progressive model, drives the southern end of the trough SSW, and merges two vorticity signatures at the 500MB LEVEL ... and develops a fairly deep SFC low ... albeit embedded in a cyclonic environment ... again, more like a hybrid or strong gale center ...

a potent s/w crosses into the Central Great Plains (the cutoff currently in the SW, but eventually shears out in the confluent flow across the Central US and is absorbed by a carving trough due to a diving vortex in Northern Canada and becoming more well-defined over Hudson Bay ... before the current SW cutoff low shears out, possible potent outbreak of SVR WX across N TX/OK/KS in about 3-4 days ...

Here's a BIG ISSUE of NOGAPS from 120 to 132 hours ... it JUMPS from the SE'ern most Bahama Islands, to the SW'ern most Bahama Islands in just 12 HOURS ... that's roughly a 200 NM jump!!!! ....

StormChasr · #6 Postby **StormChasr** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:11 am

En Englais, sil vous plait?

yoda · #7 Postby **yoda** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:17 am

Excellent posts SF. I totally agree. You pinpointed exactly why I do not buy the NOGAPS solution ATTM...

StormChasr, what would you like to be defined?

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:18 am

I tell ya.. uif it happens, I will take all you guys out to dinner for crow!

yoda · #9 Postby **yoda** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 12:19 am

~Floydbuster wrote:I tell ya.. uif it happens, I will take all you guys out to dinner for crow!

And if it doesn't happen, which I am about 85% sure... I'll take ya out for crow!

#10 Postby **george_r_1961** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:00 am

I must be missing something here. Climatology doesnt favor anything popping up down there and aside from warm SST's I dont see any other favorable conditions. Not to say though that a hybrid or gale canter might form..with the latter being the most likely IMO

yoda · #11 Postby **yoda** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 1:06 am

george_r_1961 wrote:I must be missing something here. Climatology doesnt favor anything popping up down there and aside from warm SST's I dont see any other favorable conditions. Not to say though that a hybrid or gale canter might form..with the latter being the most likely IMO

Which is what I see... and I think SF sees as well, but I am not sure what SF sees.

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 2:43 am

We shall see.

yoda · #13 Postby **yoda** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 2:49 am

~Floydbuster wrote:We shall see.

Yes yes, see we will. Clouded the future of this system is.

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 6:55 am

yoda wrote:
george_r_1961 wrote:I must be missing something here. Climatology doesnt favor anything popping up down there and aside from warm SST's I dont see any other favorable conditions. Not to say though that a hybrid or gale canter might form..with the latter being the most likely IMO

Which is what I see... and I think SF sees as well, but I am not sure what SF sees.

George sees exactly what I see ...

The environmental conditions in the next 7 days do NOT support a pure tropical system, but more in line of a gale center, or subtroppy (at best).

SF

TS Zack · #15 Postby **TS Zack** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 11:56 am

Told you last night Mike it will be close to impossible to form anything. Conditions may get better for a short time but another trough will drop South not allowing anything to come to the US. If anything were to form it would be a hybrid system nothing tropical due to the presence of fronts.

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Nov 07, 2004 2:39 pm

I miss the shows, and the eyewall replacement cycles---Atleast give us a fish storm!!!

Hurricane OTTO????

Hurricane OTTO????

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