Global Model Consensus Building about low east of Bahamas?

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

Apart from this 12z Nogaps model run also the CMC model shows this.The 12z GFS doesn't show anything.So in other words a waiting game to see how all of this evolves is what we have to do next week.More consistent model runs and more consensus is needed from all the global models.

[Derek Ortt]

there is a consensus, except for the GFS, which, IMO, is nothing but a worthless POS when it comes to anything south of 25N.

The way a computer model works is that the previous 12 hour forecast makes up at least half of the next analysis. So the fact that everything but GFS keeps showing development gives me more and more confidence that there is at least going to be a broad area of low-pressure forming, that is QG forced initially

[cycloneye]

I would like to see GFS also in the bandwagon but at least having the rest of the globals showing something some more strong and others more weak is important for us to follow what will happen.

[Derek Ortt]

will likely take at least a day or 2 more to get GFS onboard, since the previous forecast makes up at least 50% of an analysis, affecting the forecast fields

[cycloneye]

The most interesting thing I see about all of this is how consistent the global models except the GFS haved been showing this especially being this very late in the season when many factors are against tropical cyclone formations.

[cycloneye]

The canadian model brings moisture in tonight and keeps rain in the
forecast through wednesday. it develops the trough weakly but holds
it over the area with a weak low directly over mayaguez at 12z on
tuesday. it then causes a deep low ... tropical cyclone?... to develop
just north of puerto rico late wednesday.

But the most important differences are subtle. a slight change in
the position of the trough changes the 850 mb wind flow from
southeast in the gfs to southwest in the ukmet tuesday morning and
this would greatly change the character of the weather for puerto
rico. the differences in the strong banding of the humidity between
the ukmet and the gfs also change the character of the weather. the
gfs has strong relative humidity over puerto rico ... the ukmet holds
it to the northeast coincident with the east or southeast quadrant
of the trough. with the gfs the strongest part of the low is south
southeast of jamaica ... in the ukmet it is north of puerto rico again
on tuesday. and again on wednesday night while the canadian develops
a 1003 mb low just north of the area the gfs shows it south
southeast of jamaica. it is only significant that all the models
develop lows in the area during the upcoming week.


The above is an extract from discussion of the NWS in San Juan on saturday afternoon.

[yoda]

Hmmmm, most interesting. So we may see Otto before all is said and done.... hopefully this goes out to sea or something and doesn't effect FL or any islands...

[Rainband]

I don't see it happening, affecting Florida I mean. I doubt it will form in the first place but time will tell

[cycloneye]

I don't see it happening, affecting Florida I mean. I doubt it will form in the first place but time will tell

I also dont think this if it forms will go slamming into Florida but out to sea but time will tell.

[Rainband]

I don't see it happening, affecting Florida I mean. I doubt it will form in the first place but time will tell

I also dont think this if it forms will go slamming into Florida but out to sea but time will tell.

or to you luis. What was that late season storm a few years back that moved near you??

[cycloneye]

I don't see it happening, affecting Florida I mean. I doubt it will form in the first place but time will tell

I also dont think this if it forms will go slamming into Florida but out to sea but time will tell.

or to you luis. What was that late season storm a few years back that moved near you??

Yes that was Lenny in 1999 which moved from west to east as a cat 4 cane just south of Puerto Rico.

[Anonymous]

The models do show a ridge to the north....unless there would be a weakness, "OTTO" would be pushed west or even west-southwest, wouldn't he?

[Rainband]

well the way this year has been I wouldn't rule out another lenny, we had over 52 inches of rain this year, I know you guys got a ton too. How much??

[cycloneye]

well the way this year has been I wouldn't rule out another lenny, we had over 52 inches of rain this year, I know you guys got a ton too. How much??

Here in Puerto Rico over 70 inches haved felled in the mountains of central Puerto Rico.But in San Juan on the north coast of the island over 50 inches haved fallen so far this year as data below shows.

SINCE SEP 1 18.00 11.84 6.16 11.17
SINCE JAN 1 55.49 41.20 14.29 44.28

We are 14.29 inches above normal in the rainfall at San Juan.

[Rainband]

well the way this year has been I wouldn't rule out another lenny, we had over 52 inches of rain this year, I know you guys got a ton too. How much??

Here in Puerto Rico over 70 inches haved felled in the mountains of central Puerto Rico.But in San Juan on the north coast of the island over 50 inches haved fallen so far this year as data below shows.

SINCE SEP 1 18.00 11.84 6.16 11.17
SINCE JAN 1 55.49 41.20 14.29 44.28

We are 14.29 inches above normal in the rainfall at San Juan.

where can i find my local totals. I looked at the NWS andd I can't find it. I heard the 52 on the news, I want an exact amount. I appreciate any help.

[cycloneye]

well the way this year has been I wouldn't rule out another lenny, we had over 52 inches of rain this year, I know you guys got a ton too. How much??

Here in Puerto Rico over 70 inches haved felled in the mountains of central Puerto Rico.But in San Juan on the north coast of the island over 50 inches haved fallen so far this year as data below shows.

SINCE SEP 1 18.00 11.84 6.16 11.17
SINCE JAN 1 55.49 41.20 14.29 44.28

We are 14.29 inches above normal in the rainfall at San Juan.

where can i find my local totals. I looked at the NWS andd I can't find it. I heard the 52 on the news, I want an exact amount. I appreciate any help.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/TampaBayClimatePage.shtml

The link above is the Tampa Climate Page in your area where all the info about rainfall data is.

[yoda]

well the way this year has been I wouldn't rule out another lenny, we had over 52 inches of rain this year, I know you guys got a ton too. How much??

Here in Puerto Rico over 70 inches haved felled in the mountains of central Puerto Rico.But in San Juan on the north coast of the island over 50 inches haved fallen so far this year as data below shows.

SINCE SEP 1 18.00 11.84 6.16 11.17
SINCE JAN 1 55.49 41.20 14.29 44.28

We are 14.29 inches above normal in the rainfall at San Juan.

where can i find my local totals. I looked at the NWS andd I can't find it. I heard the 52 on the news, I want an exact amount. I appreciate any help.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/TampaBayClimatePage.shtml

The link above is the Tampa Climate Page in your area where all the info about rainfall data is.

LOL Luis!! I just PMed her that site just secs before you posted that!!! Great minds think alike as they say...

[Rainband]

Thanks guys. I didn't see yearly though. I will look again, Thanks again Luis and Matt!!

[Stormsfury]

The models do show a ridge to the north....unless there would be a weakness, "OTTO" would be pushed west or even west-southwest, wouldn't he?

There is a weakness that whatever does form (low pressure area will form somewhere) progged by model guidance consensus ... now, remember, we're dealing with a strong 1040mb-ish type high (quite cold ... origins in Eastern Canada with a Hudson Bay Vortex in place) ... will send some chilly, albeit modified polar once it traverses across the W ATL Ocean ... SST's are cooling off quite a bit, with <26ºC south of about 26ºN.

SF

[cycloneye]

The models do show a ridge to the north....unless there would be a weakness, "OTTO" would be pushed west or even west-southwest, wouldn't he?

There is a weakness that whatever does form (low pressure area will form somewhere) progged by model guidance consensus ... now, remember, we're dealing with a strong 1040mb-ish type high (quite cold ... origins in Eastern Canada with a Hudson Bay Vortex in place) ... will send some chilly, albeit modified polar once it traverses across the W ATL Ocean ... SST's are cooling off quite a bit, with <26ºC south of about 26ºN.

SF

Yes SF that will be a monster ridge that will send down sheets of cool air and also dry air embedded.