Circulation with excellent outflow...

[PurdueWx80]

This is something that will develop out of nothing that can be seen right now. It will most likely be a baroclinic (or QG as Derek mentions) formation if anything. This basically means it could develop into a subtropical or hybrid storm that has some tropical characteristics. The 12Z GEM from today also has the storm, but it again looks as if it will get caught by a CONUS trough and develop into a monster over the NW Atlantic. This could be a big ticket item for New England and especially the Canadian Maritimes if it pans out.

[Scorpion]

Oh, so no more threat to Florida?

[StormChasr]

57 degrees last night here in Daytona Beach. Ocean temp has dropped to 73 degrees, and the cold front will persist until mid week next week. I would think it far too cold for a hurricane or tropical formation anywhere near Florida---I know what the computer models are saying, but common sense seems to dictate otherwise.

[TS Zack]

Next weekend a huge artic ridge will move South bringing much of the Southeast their first freeze of the season.

Tropics are the last thing on my mind.

[Anonymous]

80-83 degrees...warm enough

[StormChasr]

Ocean temp at Daytona Beach was 73 degrees this morning. Just took a dip in the Ocean, and it was COLD!!

[Scorpion]

Yea, the SST's north of 26 north look pretty poor for hurricanes. However, i doubt it would weaken a major that much.

[cyclonaut]

Next weekend a huge artic ridge will move South bringing much of the Southeast their first freeze of the season.

Tropics are the last thing on my mind.

Maybe in your neck of the woods the season is over but the Fla peninsula still stands the chance of being affected by tropical or hybrid systems.

Lets take a look at systems that have directly or indirectly affected the state in Nov.....

Powerful late season cane here!!!

CAT 1 cane in the Keys

A DECEMBER CANE!!!

The Yankee Cane


Hurricane Kate





The season is not over quite yet,even if this would be system fails to develop there is still time for something else..I still hear the echos of people screaming that it wass a dud/boring season earlier this year just before the $#!+ hit the fan.

[Stormsfury]

Floydbuster ... look again ... First of all, the area isn't under an anticyclone aloft, it's caught between a weakness in between two upper ridges ... there's currently a surface trough in the region, a 500mb ridge is located in Northern Mexico ... at 300mb, there's two ridges, one left, and one right, and a the disorganized convection is in a weakness between the two with relatively light west winds ...

Looking at 500mb model guidance maps, shows just how far reaching south the trough in the mid-levels is ....







SF

[yoda]

Good post SF. Its good you can read those maps, cause I can't...

[hurricanefloyd5]

We're now in November....there's never been a landfalling cat-3 in south Florida later than October 25th, much less a cat-4.Not saying it's going to happen but there's never been a landfalling cat-3 in central Florida 3 times in a year little long in 6 weeks time and that never happen before so i think anything can happen but again i doubt it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Scorpion]

Well, theres a first time for everything .