season not over for florida

[boca]

System will pull a Lenny or Michele right out to sea. I feel FL is in the clear because of Strong high pressure will protect us from system moving to the North.

[StormChasr]

No storm for Florida. Going to be in the '40s-50's tonite, and the ocean has cooled off drastically. Just not going to happen--possibly some rain.
Computer models are not accurate---look at the election computer models.

[Stormsfury]

the new run is different. No worries

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The 0z ECMWF really backs off on the cutoff idea and has a much weaker SFC reflection and no counterclockwise spin back to the west ...

The 12z ECMWF is even less dramatic with the SFC low pressure ... it's much slower with the building HIGH into the Eastern US, and just as strong, which allows the SFC low to sweep up towards the NNE quite rapidly well offshore and heading into the Canadian Maritimes ... meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure and a SFC trough takes shape by day 7 and moves NE well out to sea from the Caribbean as well ...

Massive HIGH pressure in the Central US (KS/NE) 1042 mb HIGH on Day 7 ...

[Derek Ortt]

the canadian seems different because it only goes out to 72 hours.

the 0Z run goes out to 144 hours and doesnt form the system until day 4

[Stormsfury]

the canadian seems different because it only goes out to 72 hours.

the 0Z run goes out to 144 hours and doesnt form the system until day 4

Actually, the CMC meteocentre site goes to 144 hours on the 12z run and 0z goes to 240...the 12z run actually appears to be very similar to the ECMWF in regards to a full latitude and negative trough extending from the Hudson Bay Vortex clear down into the SE'ern states ... and the low takes off per phasing while pushing NNE ...

[Steve H.]

Actually that's an old run, initiated on 3 Nov. I still am suspicious of this area, since it is to the south and west near the Honduran/Nicaraguan coast. 'til that evacuates, it makes me a bit nervous.

[Guest]

Hopefully its not Miamis turn. First Tampa (got spared) then West Palm (Got hit) then Mobile (Just missed) then West Palm again (Got hit... again).

[Stormsfury]

Actually that's an old run, initiated on 3 Nov. I still am suspicious of this area, since it is to the south and west near the Honduran/Nicaraguan coast. 'til that evacuates, it makes me a bit nervous.

YIKES!!! ... well, then ... just throw that map out the window ...

ok, extrapolation time using the 12z run from Canada's weatheroffice ... notice on the 72 hour plot, that the cutoff low in the SW remains jsut offshore of baja, California ... and in response, a ridge in Central Mexico, forcing downstream NW winds and enhancing the NW flow across the SE from the Great North ... strong 1031 mb high in the Central US translating east, but also slower than yesterday's run with the introduction of a vortex near Hudson Bay ... and a 995 mb low in Nova Scotia ... this in thus is carving out quite a trough deep into the SE US ... a disturbance riding through the confluent flow between the cutoff low in the SE (a piece of vorticity) is ejected out and rides the confluence across the southern tier and ends up moving ESE and in response, seems to initiate low pressure formation ... (this still is up in the air, but in the worse case scenario, we're dealing with a hybridish like storm. The influence of low pressure covers quite a bit of real estate) ...

Also notice on the 72 hour map, in the lower right hand corner, the moisture field ... stretches from a very long frontal boundary out from the triple point of the 995mb low in Nova Scotia, clear down into the Caribbean Islands 3 days from now ... per CMC global ....

SF

[hurricanemike]

waters havent cooled off....still 75F off Jacksonville.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, this more thaan likely will be tropical moisture feeding into a phaser that MAY ride offshore the east coast up to the hinterlands. But it could get interesting. Something to bridge into the winter season with.

[Stormsfury]

waters havent cooled off....still 75F off Jacksonville.

Yeah, this more thaan likely will be tropical moisture feeding into a phaser that MAY ride offshore the east coast up to the hinterlands. But it could get interesting. Something to bridge into the winter season with.

Which is VERY encouraging for the next MJO phase (for winter weather lovers) ... SOI indecies have been falling off quite dramatically, along with a slight increase in the QBO up to 7.84 in October from the 7.22 in September ... this system COULD be a forerunner(precursor) of the type of storm systems we see this upcoming winter ...

[Derek Ortt]

the 0Z CMC was similar and the low appears to be QG forced initially. However, once the ridge builds in, the model then takes a more tropical type shape to the SLP field. The pure trop is not until day 5 with very rapid intensification into a significant cane on day 6

[Sanibel]

I think we've been suckered again by another non-former the center of which has gone to EPAC...

[PurdueWx80]

12Z UKMET has the same scenario...notice how the storm backs in under the strengthening East Coast ridge. That ridge seems to mean business since the cut-offs over the west coast immediately turn NNE over the Plains.

[Derek Ortt]

Sanibel,

that low was supposed to go into the epac. The low that is expected to form later on is due to QG forcing initially, followed by a tropical transition

[Stormsfury]

PurdueWx ... that's the 00z UKMET and brand new run ... and it stronger/quicker with the high building to the East Coast, and notice the deep low that the CMC depicts over NS is nowhere in sight ...

Looking at the isobars from the low in the lower right corner still seems to indicate a frontal trough type boundary extending from it. IMO, we're still dealing with a baroclinically charged system. Afterwards, gets interesting and speculatory, but we're looking at a split flow scenario ... which starts out clearly baroclinic in nature, but winds clear up to 200mb do become rather light in about 5 days PER ECMWF ... and COULD support a hybrid ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/EC200mb.gif

[Sanibel]

Hm. Guess I'll watch and learn then. And hope somebody explains QG forcing (I think I have and idea, but would have to see it defined)...

[TS Zack]

QG Forces are mainly baroclinic.

[PurdueWx80]

PurdueWx ... that's the 00z UKMET and brand new run ... and it stronger/quicker with the high building to the East Coast, and notice the deep low that the CMC depicts over NS is nowhere in sight ...

That isn't the 00Z UKMET...it's the 12Z from this morning. Re-check the dates and times...the first panel is a 12 hour forecast...which is why it is is valid at 00Z Saturday. The 00Z run won't come out for several more hours.

[Derek Ortt]

some short QG

warm surface advection = building ridge
cold surface advection= building trough

upward vertical motion in warm region or downward vertical motion in cold environment, more energy for the baroclinic wave


there is much more, though much can be explained by the omega and tendency equations