season not over for florida

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 11:07 am

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

other models also form this feature, though not as strong. However, the last couple of years, only the CMC has been able to pick up on these significant developments before they form, so I DEFINATELY wouldnt discount this.

CMC has a major hurricane headed at Miami next week... just when I thought I was safe for the rest of the year, there may be something important to watch yet

Sanibel · #2 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 11:34 am

The shape of that disturbance hasn't changed, it has been hooking around the Nicaragua/Honduras border for over 24 hours now and deepening!

Could be a late bloomer like Michelle...

(Told you - when a cold front hits the Gulf early at season's end look for late heat)

Derek Ortt · #3 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 12:05 pm

still doesnt look like a michelle scenario. The low center is over land, but as this moves to the NE, due to simple QG dynamics, a new low-center should form. Then, the weak trough lifts out, brings a monster ridge behind (if the models verify, this is the strongest ridge of 2004), forcing the storm into Florida, while intensifying quite a bit.

This has happened before in 1985 with Kate, actually, it was forced into Cuba from the north before getting into the GOM. We havnt had many significant fronts into this portion of the atl yet, so the atmosphere thinks it is late september or early oct

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 12:05 pm

Yikes

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 12:33 pm

I'm not going to shoot the warning flare yet, but this is something to watch derek. 12ZUKMET has come a bit further west also. With a definite deepening of the convection near NE Nicaragua, and a front that will pass across Florida then stall and lift out (notice the shape of the frontal boundary now) I don't like this setup. Especially the size of the ridge to the north. GFS too far east with this. It will come back west over the next day or two. Need to watch real weather here at this time of the year, not just model trends :eek:

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 12:40 pm

The 12z ECMWF picked up on this feature last night, but as a colder core system behind that massive high pressure system in the Eastern US (quite cold) ... IMHO, we're dealing with a large but baroclinically enhanced system ...

SF

weatherwindow · #7 Postby **weatherwindow** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:41 pm

imo...after watching the evolution of the models over the past 48 hr, i think the ridge strength is over done and believe that the weakness that was progged to exist about 70-75deg west will remain. carib disturb will be shunted north......any thoughts :roll:

#8 Postby **mascpa** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 2:46 pm

Hope you are correct WW, but I've learned to listen to what Derek has to say. He was great with Frances and Jeanne.

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 3:04 pm

that front looks just a bit too weak.

Not saying something will happen, I just dont buy the NE out to sea GFS BS.

In any event, some moisture is likely for the Florida area late next week, at the very least

#10 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 3:05 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Not saying something will happen, I just dont buy the NE out to sea GFS BS.

Nor do I...anyone remember Jeanne?

weatherwindow · #11 Postby **weatherwindow** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 3:20 pm

derek..not suggesting a sweeping front...but rather that the bridging of that weakness is a closely done thing. the persistence of that weakness another 24 hours or so. would likely result in the escape of the system to the north.......rich

bucman1 · #12 Postby **bucman1** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 3:59 pm

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 4:22 pm

AZUCAR!!! THE GIANT IS WAKING UP.

Derek Ortt · #14 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 4:36 pm

the storm will move to the NE, but then not make it much past 26N and 70W, at which time the models are in very good agreement bringing a monster ridge over the area, resulting in an obvious track back to the west.

Here's hoping that CMC does not verify. I dont want a cat 3-4 coming at me now

#15 Postby **sponger** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 4:40 pm

Thanks Derrick, we will be watching!

kevin · #16 Postby **kevin** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 5:33 pm

But its November.... =o

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 5:57 pm

So? I hate that excuse. ITS NOVEMBER! YES! Until Nov 30, the season is STILL HERE. IT IS NOT OVER UNTIL NOV 30TH!

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 5:57 pm

the new run is different. No worries :wink:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

chadtm80 · #19 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 6:06 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:So? I hate that excuse. ITS NOVEMBER! YES! Until Nov 30, the season is STILL HERE. IT IS NOT OVER UNTIL NOV 30TH!

No need to yell. I believe it was tounge in cheek

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 05, 2004 6:09 pm

Sorry. Not yelling, sometimes when I am really typing fast, I tend to hold down the shift key.

season not over for florida

season not over for florida

WHEN AND WHAT PART OF FLORIDA DO YOU FEEL WILL BE THREATENED

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