Hurricane Isidore...

[Anonymous]

I was just interested in Hurricane Isidore and wanted to create a topic on it.

[Scorpion]

I don't understand the big deal with Isidore. It was a weak to mid Cat 3. Tons of hurricanes are like it.

[Huckster]

I don't know what kinda Christian mysticism that website is trying to preach, but that is worse than the prophecies in Weekly World News. Talk about eisegesis! Lord, forgive your people for twisting your Word. Erhalt uns, Herr, bei deinem Wort!

[Hurricanehink]

Yea, Isidore was impressive, sorta, but there have been many other stronger and better organized hurricanes. I suppose everyone is entitled to their opinion.

[AussieMark]

Michelle looked much more defined when she hit Cuba the previous November.

[HurricaneBill]

Isidore reminds me of the little talked about Hurricane Carmen in 1974. Hit the Yucatan as a Cat 2 and was a strong Cat 4 in the Gulf before hitting Louisiana as a weak Category 3. I think Carmen kinda collapsed prior to landfall like Lili did. I have a feeling Derek's gonna downgrade Carmen.

Carmen was the first major since Camille to threaten the Gulf Coast. 1 year later, Hurricane Eloise would bring the Florida panhandle's streak of 70 years without a major hurricane landfall to an end.

The death toll from Carmen was only 4, like Isidore. However, Carmen nearly wiped out the shrimp industry in Louisiana.
Carmen was retired.

Note: Hurricane Carmen was the hurricane Lt. Dan and Forrest Gump went through. However, some people thought it was Camille.

Lili was far more destructive in Louisiana than Isidore. Despite weakening, Lili still caused $800 million in damage.

[AussieMark]

Carmen hit Yucutan as a 150 mph category 4 I thought and weakened to a category 1 at landfall on Lousiana coast.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not on the re-analysis project, but I do know those involved and talk with them quite a bit.

Also, a member of this board IS on the re-analysis project

[Anonymous]

Isidore was going to be a category 5 hurricane for the USA.

[Derek Ortt]

actually, from the 5 day forecasts, isidore was forecast to weaken to a category 2 hurricane before making landfall in Louisiana.

The GOM typically is not condusive for a major hurricane to maintain itself the entire way across, especially the northern Gulf. Ivan went from 5 to marginal 3 as have many other hurricanes. With Isidore, the environment near LA was very hostile for a major hurricane; thus, it likely would have been a 2 at landfall

[Anonymous]

That forecast Derek, was when it was supposed to move right off the Yucatan, AFTER MAKING LANDFALL on September 22-23.

Before it hit the Yucatan, on September 21-22, it was supposed to be approching the Texas/Lousiana coast as a 155 mph hurricane.

There was no shear. It was likely to be a category 4 later that night had it not been for the turn into the Yucatan. Read this, hurricane researchers say what would have REALLY happened with Hurricane Isidore:

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurrica ... izarre.htm

[Anonymous]

Our own Mike Watkins on September 21st:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2002TC10092202z.htm

"THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PROJECTED INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD IN STRENGTH...WITH A FEW UPS AND DOWNS DURING REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AND COULD BE A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 5 STORM IN THREE DAYS."

[Anonymous]

LOOK AT THE OUTFLOW...I NEVER SAW OUTFLOW LIKE THAT:

[Hurricanehink]

I just can't believe it actually went south. That was a pretty big surprise that night.

[Derek Ortt]

forecasts had it mnissing the Yucatan initially and has\d it weakening from a strong 4 to a cat 1/2 by the time it reached Louisiana.

The experimental 5 day forecasts (which they released one of Isidore when they released a sample 5 day) had Isidore colappsing before reaching Louisiana

[Anonymous]

Well, I would think that would not happen since it really strengthened as it made landfall. Nevertheless, In my opinion, Hurricane Isidore would have been a category 4/5 hurricane in Grand Isle, LA.

[Derek Ortt]

surface observations indicated no intensification as it made landfall. 55KT 12 hours before and 55KT at the coast. There was no rapid intensification before making landfall.

Also, just because conditions are favorable for a TS, doesnt make them favorable for a hurricane. I have done a lot of research and it will be published hopefully within a year indicating that a major hurricane requires much mroe favorable conditions to intensify then does a TS. Isidore likely would have been a cat 1 or a 2 at landfall as slow as it was moving

[Anonymous]

But...LILI..went...down to cat 2...nevermind

[Scorpion]

Geez, how was Isidore only a 3? He looks like a 5 easily. Almost Camille-esque. He had a perfectly small, clear eye, deep convection, perfect CDO, perfect outflow. Did they underestimate his intensity?

[Anonymous]

Geez, how was Isidore only a 3? He looks like a 5 easily. Almost Camille-esque. He had a perfectly small, clear eye, deep convection, perfect CDO, perfect outflow. Did they underestimate his intensity?

Satellite had it at 150 mph as it hit the Yucatan. But, recon said it was 25 mph weaker. I think it was a category 4 as it hit though.