Will a named storm develop from Tropical Wave in Caribbean?

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cycloneye
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Will a named storm develop from Tropical Wave in Caribbean?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 29, 2004 6:15 am

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA ALONG 76W/77W S OF 19N MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE WHICH HAS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
12.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 73W-79W.

Because it is located in a hot spot for this time of the year it has to be watched.But there is dry air around the wave however the shear is not too strong.

Image

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#2 Postby weatherwindow » Fri Oct 29, 2004 6:32 am

are the models suggesting development?....any thoughts?
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#3 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Oct 29, 2004 6:43 am

The models pick up something late in the period, so maybe not this one. However, if the convection persists, it has a chance, IMO. Otto could be used before 2010.
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#4 Postby Steve H. » Fri Oct 29, 2004 7:05 am

Correct. Models like the CMC are picking up on development later in the period around day 6, then move it into the southern GOM at day 9. Other models are showing development in the same time frame, but none are showing this wave. Often western Caribbean systems can slip under the radar, so to speak :wink:
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#5 Postby sponger » Fri Oct 29, 2004 8:49 am

looks fairly impressive convection wise. Ort or MW, ot AFM, any thoughts? I don't think anyone will mind if this goes away quietly into the night!
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#6 Postby sponger » Fri Oct 29, 2004 8:53 am

How about you Barometer Bob? You where always my first choice! :)
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#7 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:57 am

This one could be in a diurnal negative phase right now. If it is it should reflare later with deep reds again.

TWC says if it does do anything it will probably head north and crash into the islands anyway...
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#8 Postby msbee » Sat Oct 30, 2004 11:05 am

sanibel
don't talk so casually about it possibly heading North and smashing into the islands, like that's no big deal.
That could cause a significant rain event and flooding which could be serious for the islands.
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 30, 2004 11:15 am

Of course, we always refer in relation to ourselves.


This one looks dried out in the dry regime that has been dominating for a month now.

However, this little thin wave hints at having enough storm plasma to get it together if it suddenly turns on...

Nice and warm here and more hazy than before...
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#10 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 30, 2004 11:37 am

It looked promising this morning, but now its looking ragged. Plus theres gobs of dry air just waiting to kill it. Looks like the season is over :(.
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#11 Postby TS Zack » Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:07 pm

Yes I have been saying the season was over since a couple weeks ago once the GFS picked up on the never forming Systems.

Bring on the Cold!
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#12 Postby cyclonaut » Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:31 pm

The season is over Nov.30th.
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#13 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Oct 30, 2004 3:38 pm

What wave? :-)
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#14 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 30, 2004 3:42 pm

chadtm80 wrote:What wave? :-)


:lol:
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2004 3:45 pm

chadtm80 wrote:What wave? :-)


TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 80W/81W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A WEAKENING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
HONDURAS AND A ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN
IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.



This wave but no organization in it. :)
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