Area in SE Caribbean

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:52 am

Has anyone notice the area in the Southern Windward Islands. Its moving North of due West.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #2 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:00 am

Yeah. Overall conditions don't favor development at this time.

#3 Postby **mascpa** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:29 pm

Why not?

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:55 pm

senorpepr wrote:Yeah. Overall conditions don't favor development at this time.

Actually, they do.
Waters are 83-85 degrees, and the shear is 5-10 kts and decreasing. That is OVERALL conditions. Not ALL conditions are favorable. But OVERALL they are.

Sanibel · #5 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 2:37 pm

Has a rotation on visible. Should be wiped out...

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 2:39 pm

Sanibel wrote:Has a rotation on visible. Should be wiped out...

What do you mean by WIPED OUT?

bigmike · #7 Postby **bigmike** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 2:54 pm

strong westerly winds aloft

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 2:56 pm

Where?

#9 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 2:58 pm

Thoughts on potential for Caribbean development:

Positives:

1. Water temps are fairly warm down there
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anal.gif

2. Upper-level winds are light:

Negatives:

1. Well for one thing the environment is extremly dry in and around the system:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

2. The system is also very close to the South American coast which is a problem for developed systems...let alone a disorganized wave.

3. Models are not picking up on any significant development in the next few days.

4. The eastern Caribbean is never a place where systems develop even during the peak months of the season.

The limited guidance I have seen so far today indicates a broad area of low-level spin...but not necessarily a tropical low...will develop in the SW Caribbean in 3 or 4 days...but we saw this scenario unfold last week and nothing came of it. Looks like development...if any...will be days away.

MW

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:03 pm

Bone dry air in caribbean sea making enviromental conditions hostile.

Sanibel · #11 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:14 pm

Could have something here.

19:15UTC GHCC IR frame indicates strengthening organization over Tobago...

yoda · #12 Postby **yoda** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:25 pm

11:30 TWO shows nothing much...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 500
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

----------

Good posts Mike and Luis.. and I agree. That dry air will hinder development. Models I have seen today from the 12z suite still do not develop this much...

Also.. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?

I don't know which one is for that wave though...

Scorpion · #13 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:29 pm

Hopefully it will get further away from South America for it to develop. Hopefully the dry air wont get to it either.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:30 pm

See, that sometimes tightens the circulation. Therefore, when it gets over water, it is a tight center.

yoda · #15 Postby **yoda** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:31 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:See, that sometimes tightens the circulation. Therefore, when it gets over water, it is a tight center.

True. But the system in question is still moving West... I doubt the 5:30 TWO will say much about it.

TS Zack · #16 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:54 pm

For a system to form this time of year it needs everything going its way not just water temps and shear.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #17 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:59 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Yeah. Overall conditions don't favor development at this time.

Actually, they do.
Waters are 83-85 degrees, and the shear is 5-10 kts and decreasing. That is OVERALL conditions. Not ALL conditions are favorable. But OVERALL they are.

This kind of echos MWatkin's remarks, but yes the overall conditions are not favorable. As both Mike and Luis have said, there is too much extremly dry air. With the wave being partically over land, the dry air will only hurt it. If the wave continues following the ITCZ, the decreases the limited chance even more as it will go into northern Venezuela and Colombia. Plus, this part of the world isn't too favorable for development climatologically. Bottom line is I fell this wave will do nothing more than produce convection throughout the northern SoAm countries and nearby islands and cross into the EPAC.

Shear and water temperatures are only small pieces of the puzzle and are NOT an overall key to development.

TS Zack · #18 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:02 pm

Convection is mainly daytime enhanced! Plus you have a lifting mechanism helping create convection.

Sanibel · #19 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:18 pm

Poof...

Area in SE Caribbean

Area in SE Caribbean

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