Bad news coming soon...

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Anonymous

Bad news coming soon...

#1 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:54 am

HERE, IT ALL PLAYS OUT LIKE THIS:

WAVE MOVING INTO CARIBBEAN
Image

SHEAR FAVORABLE AND STILL DECREASING
Image

MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

WATERS VERY WARM
Image
Last edited by Anonymous on Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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sponger
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#2 Postby sponger » Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:02 pm

The proverbal fat lady hasnt sung yet!!!!
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm

I added the SST's...all is ready for another hurricane.
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#4 Postby alicia-w » Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:15 pm

Bad news meaning what exactly....
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:31 pm

Well, a storm can develop steadily, or even rapidly over warm water, with no shear.
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#6 Postby alicia-w » Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:42 pm

I was trying to following the progression set up with the graphics and the link to the model (accompanied by the statement that they hinted at development) and didnt see any development possibilities. Can someone fill me in? Thanks!
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:44 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#8 Postby alicia-w » Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:45 pm

i already saw that and still dont follow. thanks anyway.
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#9 Postby mascpa » Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:05 pm

I'm with you Alicia; not sure I understand either. The only thing I can discern is that Floyd is stating that the conditions are ripe for tropical development, but the models don't seem to pick up on anything.
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#10 Postby Guest » Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:35 pm

A week ago or so, the long term GFS hinted in a weak area of low pressure in the Caribbean. This would be in the time frame for this wave on or around Nov 2 to show signs of organization. It doesn't mean that it will happen. Later this week, as high pressure builds in over the SE, we could see this wave move more wnw or even nw as it moves into the W Caribbean.
Development at this time seems unlikely, but with shear weakening, and high pressure near the area, it tends over time to enhance some of the parameters needed to allow for organization.
The first thing is in place, a tropical wave.
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#11 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:39 pm

I am worried...and hoping :)
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#12 Postby Guest » Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:52 pm

Why would you hope for a tropical cyclone to develop in the Caribbean? Climatologically, this would more then likely affect the Gulf Coast somewhere!
We have had enough!! Time to end the season!!
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#13 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 1:54 pm

Well, is there a highly divergent uppel-level flow pattern?
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#14 Postby Lindaloo » Mon Oct 25, 2004 2:59 pm

BarometerBob wrote:Why would you hope for a tropical cyclone to develop in the Caribbean? Climatologically, this would more then likely affect the Gulf Coast somewhere!
We have had enough!! Time to end the season!!


AMEN!!
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#15 Postby Scorpion » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:27 pm

It seems too close to South America for it to develop :( .
Last edited by Scorpion on Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:27 pm

See, I am not the only one.
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#17 Postby iceangel » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:41 pm

BarometerBob wrote:Time to end the season!!


lindaloo wrote: AMEN!!

ditto to that!!!
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#18 Postby yoda » Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:42 pm

Methinks the season ist doth over, my friends...
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#19 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:20 pm

Viewing 12z Guidance doesn't give that area much of a shot at all ... there are generally lower pressures, but the SFC high pressure that noses down is channeling quite cool, stable air, well into the GOM (ala "the wedge" or cold air damming ...)... I'm more inclined to go with the overwhelming consensus, that 1) it's too close to South America ... 2) general low-level flow keeps the area moving generally west and won't be much of a factor except for increased rainfall chances from 9ºN-13ºN ...

IMHO, the season is looking to come to a very quiet end .. we've seen no median development in the Central or Western Caribbean this season, and the only GOM developments were Bonnie, and Matthew ... I'm expecting the trend to continue for the rest of the season (like I've talked about a month ago) ... The developments of Matthew and Nicole have given us an indication that we've transitioned from the pattern which produced powerhouse systems, to one of hybrids ... and 99L just missed its opportunity of being another hybrid ...

SF
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#20 Postby senorpepr » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:26 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Well, a storm can develop steadily, or even rapidly over warm water, with no shear.


My thoughts on this wave are this: no development unless this wave can seperate from the ITCZ, which I don't see happening. The wave axis is over the Guyana/Venezuela border and is moving W at 10kt. It's nearing the northern-most, or ridge, of the ITCZ. Thereafter, the ITCZ dips southward into northern Venezuela and northern Colombia. Even with all that warm water and relaxing shear, the bulk of the wave will remain over land killing its chances.
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