T number for 99L ST 2.5/2.5

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cycloneye
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T number for 99L ST 2.5/2.5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 23, 2004 7:17 pm

23/2345 UTC 34.1N 65.2W ST2.5/2.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#2 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Oct 23, 2004 7:27 pm

Expect to see STS Otto at either 11 PM or 5 AM.....or at latest, 11 AM.
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 23, 2004 7:33 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Expect to see STS Otto at either 11 PM or 5 AM.....or at latest, 11 AM.


99L doesn't have enough convection around the center as of yet ... once that is acquired, a subtropical declaration is looking more likely ...

SF
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 23, 2004 7:39 pm

Yeah, 99L still looks plenty baroclinic to be declared subtropical. Regardless, the Hebert-Potate numbers are now in line with what NRL has listed... ST2.5 / 40kt. Also, pressure is estimated a millibar lower than before: 996mb.
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#5 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:10 pm

If it wasn't subtropical, there wouldn't be Herbert-Poteat Estimates out...
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#6 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:23 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:If it wasn't subtropical, there wouldn't be Herbert-Poteat Estimates out...


Maybe I should have said "to be declared fully subtropical." They can still accomplish the Herbert-Poteat technique, but they system is still too extratropical to be called a subtropical cyclone.
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#7 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:53 pm

Cool :D So i guess if this development trend continues then we could have STS Otto?
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:12 am

No change...

24/0545 UTC 34.7N 65.1W ST2.5/2.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:26 am

Still no change this morning at 1145 UTC.

24/1145 UTC 34.1N 64.2W ST2.5/2.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean

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Scorpion

#10 Postby Scorpion » Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:38 am

:(
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:40 am

Scorpion wrote::(


It has little convection wraping around the low and without convection it will not turn subtropical.
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#12 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Oct 24, 2004 10:43 am

The circulation center itself with the occluded front is almost wrapped all the way around and could lose its frontal identity in the next 24 hours, however, this doesn't mean that 99L is imminent to turn subtropical ... the gale center is vigorous and fairly curoff from the main flow (as typical with weak El Niño WEST patterns, and why there are so many hybrid-like systems during Niño years) ... 99L, right now, has a 50/50 chance of gaining subtropical status ... It needs to completely wrap the occluded front (thusly, an insignificant temperature gradient) and gain convection ...

SF
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