99L invest is up for atlantic low,Otto in the making

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Will it turn into a subtropical low named Otto?At least some chance for it to be more wrm core is given by the TPC folks at discussion. THIS LOW
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS
IT COULD LOSE ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE STILL OVER WARM WATER.

[Stormsfury]

The invest is still driving a cold front further eastward, but the deeply stacked low has become occluded ... and in fact, might have a chance to lose the frontal characteristics while moving generally SE ... while over warm waters, the relatively light shear environment in a deeply layered cyclonic atmosphere bears a possible shot of 99L becoming a subtropical system ...

SF

[lilbump3000]

Looks like we might already have a subtropical storm as the NRL site has it at 40kts and 997mb.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, that is a surprise! Come on Otto!

[cycloneye]

23/1745 UTC 34.3N 67.7W ST1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Hurricanehink]

92? Shouldn't that be 99?

[lilbump3000]

the dvorak site always have a different number for the storm.

[Hurricanehink]

Ah, ok. 1.5 is a little low, IMO.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Yes!!! A shot at the lead! Possibly the win too, seeing as how both oceans are running out of chances. There's still one more month though, so you never know. Remember last December...

[Anonymous]

We will soon have Otto IMO.

[dixiebreeze]

So, what is Otto's likely track? Anyone?

[cycloneye]

So, what is Otto's likely track? Anyone?

Here are the first model plots for 99L.Dixie away from the US.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL992004) ON 20041023 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041023 1200 041024 0000 041024 1200 041025 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.6N 67.3W 35.4N 65.6W 34.9N 64.2W 34.8N 61.1W
BAMM 35.6N 67.3W 34.8N 66.2W 33.9N 64.8W 33.3N 61.9W
A98E 35.6N 67.3W 35.3N 67.2W 34.2N 65.2W 31.6N 59.6W
LBAR 35.6N 67.3W 36.1N 66.0W 36.7N 65.2W 37.2N 64.6W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 49KTS 54KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 49KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041025 1200 041026 1200 041027 1200 041028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.1N 57.9W 39.5N 57.4W 41.7N 58.7W 42.5N 54.9W
BAMM 33.9N 58.3W 37.9N 54.1W 41.8N 54.2W 44.7N 52.7W
A98E 29.7N 53.6W 25.1N 46.3W 24.8N 43.5W 25.6N 43.8W
LBAR 37.4N 63.8W 38.2N 62.3W 39.1N 61.2W 39.7N 55.2W
SHIP 58KTS 65KTS 68KTS 64KTS
DSHP 58KTS 65KTS 68KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.6N LONCUR = 67.3W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 35.7N LONM12 = 67.7W DIRM12 = 129DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 35.8N LONM24 = 67.4W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1005MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 450NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 250NM

[senorpepr]

Here's a clip from the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update:

Invest 99L
35.6N 67.3W (270mi NW of Hamilton, Bermuda)
45 mph; 997 mb / 29.44”
Herbert-Poteat estimates: ST1.5/1.5
99L is a new invest located in the Atlantic. Currently, this system is a deep occluded system or extratropical. The cold front associated with this system is forecast to undergo frontolysis, thus losing some of its baroclinic punch. Since this system is located over fairly warm waters, if 99L loses it’s frontal features, it may become a subtropical system. Current model guidance shows this system reaching hurricane strength, but it should be noted that model guidance in terms of strength should be looked at as suspect. In any event, it will need to be monitored. Finally, it should be pointed out that although NRL lists 99L as a 45 mph system (40kt), according to the Satellite Service Division, the Herbert-Poteat estimate is ST1.5. A 45mph system would typically bear a ST2.5 reading.