GOM November Hurricane?

[Stormcenter]

I just thought I would throw that
idea out for discussion during this period of
inactivity. I can't help but wonder with
this VERY unusual "October Heat Wave"
and GOM still pretty warm for this time
year we may have at least a TS develop
in the GOM sometime early next month.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[weatherwindow]

using the reanalysis data, i could only find one trop system which actually formed in the GOM, inga 1961. obviously, if nov formation is rare, nov formation in the GOM is very rare. but , never say never. in general, ssts will remain marginally favorable thru nov in the bay of campeche south of about 22deg north. the big deterrent will be the upper level regime. with the repetitive intrusion of vigorous mid-latitude troughs well into the BOC, the mid to upperlevel winds are dominated by strong southwest to westerly flow. there may be brief lapses in this flow but these rarely for a period sufficient to allow a tropical system to develop. while local development is unlikely, many systems have formed in the caribbean basin and eventually moved into the GOM in november. thus, the conditions affecting trop cyclone dev in the carib have the largest impact on the possibility of GOM landfall. in general, upper level conditions have been fairly hostile over the caribbean since the end of sept. there is some suggestion that conditions may improve early in november...allowing a broad area of low pressure to persist over the sw carib...time will tell.....rich

[TS Zack]

Even though we have a Heat Wave across the South. Troughs are still bumping-up against that ridge and bringing fronts close enough to bring very unfavorable Upper-level Shear. It will only get worse as we progress. Plus a big change in the pattern should be expected the first week of November with finally fall coming back to the Central and Eastern States. This looks like it may be a drastic change also.

[Scorpion]

. No more TC formation this year then?

[yoda]

:(. No more TC formation this year then?

I think we are done... but who knows?

[Scorpion]

That kinda sucks. The season then ended basically with Jeanne.

[Downdraft]

That kinda sucks. The season then ended basically with Jeanne.

I don't think it sucks at all. A lot of us would be tickled silly if the season was over right now for good. Of course, a good fish is always fun to watch.

[cyclonaut]

I hate beating this like a rented mule but I think that there is still at least 1 more event waiting in the wings.

It may take till November to happen..It might just be a significant tropical rain event for someone or it might be the whole enchilada or it might just be a close call but something might go down in the southern US or Caribbean.

Just one of those feelings,call it Post Traumatic Stress Disorder from this season if you will.

[Aslkahuna]

Technically, Inga in 1961 did not form in the GOM but reformed from EPAC Hurricane Simone which tracked into the Isimuth of Tehuantepec. Simone itself had reformed from Hurricane Hattie which slamdanced Belize. Thus, we had the same system forming three different storms which got three different names. Though not forming in the GOM, Hurricane Kate in late November 1985 became the latest landfalling hurricane in the 48 contiguous US when it made landfall near Cape San Blas in FL.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Part of the reason we are having the heat wave we are in the South and especialy Texas is the fact the SST's in the W GOM are still in the 80's. We haven't had several tropical systems churning up our waters and causing massive amounts of up welling to cool the SST's. I must agree that the upper level support for any development will at the very best be marginal and do think anything beginning in the BOC or GOM is unlikely. However, I would not discount the possibility of a visit from a Caribbean born TC of some sort, possibly even a Hurricane.

[Sanibel]

Hattie was a horror for Belize and is still remembered today...