Shear in Gulf and West Caribbean favorable..

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Anonymous

Shear in Gulf and West Caribbean favorable..

#1 Postby Anonymous » Thu Oct 21, 2004 2:10 am

And lessening even more:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#2 Postby senorpepr » Thu Oct 21, 2004 2:20 am

Remember that is shear tendency. Shear in the Gulf and W Carib is actually quite stable where as the S Carib is increasing.

However, if you look at the actual shear figures, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html, you'll see the Gulf is under shear of 30-50kt (highly unfavorable) and 15-20kt (marginally favorable) in the W Carib.
Last edited by senorpepr on Thu Oct 21, 2004 2:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#3 Postby senorpepr » Thu Oct 21, 2004 2:22 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#4 Postby TS Zack » Thu Oct 21, 2004 6:54 am

Another trough will get close to the Gulf Coast this weekend which will continue to bring shear across much of the GOM and the Far W Carib. Only place for maybe some development in the Central & Western Caribbean and there it doesn't look to great.

I still don't see anything that will do much across the entire Atlantic.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#5 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 21, 2004 11:52 am

This one could flash on with favorability.

We've had several weak attempts at waves down here in October. It's awfully warm here with 88*. 4* below the record high for the date. Humid.

I'll be watching it until it blows off...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#6 Postby TS Zack » Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:35 pm

Look how much the shear has increased this afternoon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#7 Postby senorpepr » Thu Oct 21, 2004 6:45 pm

Yeah, there is still plenty of shear.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, bird, kevin and 567 guests