Ummm this is interesting=2004 season may have more activity

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:08 pm

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF
BROAD LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AROUND THE WEEKEND
WITH COMPUTER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT MIGHT BE LINKED TO AN
INCOMING ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION WHICH WILL LIKELY MIGRATE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
IN THE COMING DAYS

COMPUTER MODELS ARE FORECASTING
MORE OF A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH THIS RIDGE EXPANDING WESTWARD
TO CAUSE ELY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
BY THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRIEFLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOMETHING
ELSE TO FORM E OF THE ISLANDS THOUGH IT IS A RATHER RARE EVENT
IN LATE OCTOBER. LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
BENEATH THE RIDGE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 35W-46W.

All the above from the 8 PM discussion from TPC.

This is very interesting that they mention all of this so let's see what happens if more than one system can develop under the summerlike pattern evolving.

#2 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:10 pm

Luis, that seems extremely interesting for mid-October. I doubt the NHC would even mention it if they didn't think it was a real possibility.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:17 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Luis, that seems extremely interesting for mid-October. I doubt the NHC would even mention it if they didn't think it was a real possibility.

dixie this makes the saying never say never in the tropics more big than ever now.Let's see what happens in the next few days if that summerlike pattern really comes to the atlantic with the wet phase of the MJO.

TS Zack · #4 Postby **TS Zack** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:21 pm

The Gulf is becoming closed for any development now that we have a Subtropical Jet over the Southeast. Still Caribbean is open but that looks to be it and I really can't see anything forming the way it looks now. The NHC, like Barometer Bob said yesterday it doesn't mean development is likely or unlikely.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:29 pm

TS Zack wrote:The Gulf is becoming closed for any development now that we have a Subtropical Jet over the Southeast. Still Caribbean is open but that looks to be it and I really can't see anything forming the way it looks now. The NHC, like Barometer Bob said yesterday it doesn't mean development is likely or unlikely.

I think that Floydbuster said something about the SW caribbean a few days ago.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:45 pm

I did. I called for this to happen before Matthew was named. I saw a consistant "area" of "disturbed weather" in models. looks like my prediction was right two weeks out. Conditions ARE FAVORABLE for soem steady development. Not a sheared, center exposed system, but a convection filled, good outflow system. Remember Michelle? Same type of deal.

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:17 pm

AZUCAR!!!!!

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:20 pm

HURAKAN wrote:AZUCAR!!!!!

LOL

Scorpion · #9 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:53 pm

Yay, I can't wait to get into hurricane mode again!!!!

cyclonaut · #10 Postby **cyclonaut** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:17 pm

Time will tell if something will develop or not in the coming days/weeks but I dont expect this barnburner of a season to go away quietly into the night.

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 pm

cyclonaut wrote:Time will tell if something will develop or not in the coming days/weeks but I dont expect this barnburner of a season to go away quietly into the night.

After the season so far we would be ABSOLUTELY CRAZY to even think along those lines!!! Couldn't agree more Cyclonaut!!

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 6:41 am

Yes David anything is possible being the kind of season the 2004 one has been.Let's see what happens in the next few days.

weatherwindow · #13 Postby **weatherwindow** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:28 am

gfs has backed off on development in the sw caribbean but 10/20 00z nogaps still favors the development of a trop low in the area in the 84hr timeframe. that system moves nnw to the vicinity of jamaica at 144hrs with little change in strength.....remains to be seen

....rich...link...www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?are=ngp_[/url]

Wnghs2007 · #14 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:42 am

Well this is just insane :eek:

More storms possible.

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:51 am

Well...I forecasted 15/10/6 back in December 2003. I also called for two major hurricanes to hit the USA. People told me it was an un-realistic forecast. NOT 6 MAJOR HURRICANES! NOT TWO MAJORS IN THE USA! I think my forecast was the closest anybody got this year.

Wnghs2007 · #16 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:53 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Well...I forecasted 15/10/6 back in December 2003. I also called for two major hurricanes to hit the USA. People told me it was an un-realistic forecast. NOT 6 MAJOR HURRICANES! NOT TWO MAJORS IN THE USA! I think my forecast was the closest anybody got this year.

Well you are doing great so far. I predicted to many storms at 18 but I did have 10 hurricane and just 5 majors. So i did pretty good myself. I just thought June and July would bring us some storms to. Thats why I forecasted 18.

#17 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:21 pm

Not only that, but it feels like summer. Today's High is 91 degrees and it's Middle October!

My neighbor invited me to a pool party today and I'm going! It's HOT!

Wnghs2007 · #18 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:22 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:Not only that, but it feels like summer. Today's High is 91 degrees and it's Middle October!

My neighbor invited me to a pool party today and I'm going! It's HOT!

Lordy that is hot this time of year. Its only 74 right here. But that is because cloud cover was slow to break. other wise would have been in the 80's :eek:

Sanibel · #19 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:30 pm

The tail-end of a front is convecting off Florida.

The east of the Windwards wave is badly sheared as you would expect in late October.

Hot and summery down here...

Wnghs2007 · #20 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:33 pm

Sanibel wrote:The tail-end of a front is convecting off Florida.

The east of the Windwards wave is badly sheared as you would expect in late October.

Hot and summery down here...

Well hopefully sometime soon yall will get some relief but it does not look like it.

Ummm this is interesting=2004 season may have more activity

Ummm this is interesting=2004 season may have more activity

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