98L invest up for area E of islands,Will Otto form?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Backup site of NRL

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, that was surprising. It's good to have a little more action. Hopefully you won't get it too bad there.

[cycloneye]

Wow, that was surprising. It's good to have a little more action. Hopefully you won't get it too bad there.

Acording to GFS this disturbance will move NW well NE of the islands but you never know however being almost late october the pattern is such that the mid latitud systems are the dominant ones and that track is the climatological one expected.In other words this should be a fish.

[yoda]

Yeah, this will be very interesting. Question is will this be a TC or a STC?

[cycloneye]

.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982004) ON 20041019 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041019 1200 041020 0000 041020 1200 041021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 44.2W 12.0N 46.4W 13.6N 48.4W 15.2N 50.0W
BAMM 10.5N 44.2W 11.8N 46.6W 13.2N 48.6W 14.4N 50.0W
A98E 10.5N 44.2W 10.8N 45.5W 11.3N 47.2W 12.1N 49.0W
LBAR 10.5N 44.2W 11.7N 45.8W 13.7N 47.2W 15.3N 48.0W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041021 1200 041022 1200 041023 1200 041024 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 51.1W 19.8N 51.7W 22.2N 48.8W 20.8N 47.4W
BAMM 15.1N 50.9W 15.8N 52.8W 15.6N 55.6W 15.6N 58.9W
A98E 13.0N 50.8W 14.7N 54.2W 16.3N 57.3W 18.4N 59.2W
LBAR 16.8N 48.3W 18.9N 48.1W 19.8N 47.7W 19.3N 48.6W
SHIP 44KTS 52KTS 59KTS 64KTS
DSHP 44KTS 52KTS 59KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 44.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 43.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 41.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[yoda]

A hurricane in 120 hours eh? Luis, is this a warm core TC?

[cycloneye]

A hurricane in 120 hours eh? Luis, is this a warm core TC?

Warm core origin but midlatitud features around it such as an upper low in front of wave.

[yoda]

A hurricane in 120 hours eh? Luis, is this a warm core TC?

Warm core origin but midlatitud features around it such as an upper low in front of wave.

So will this be a TC or a STC?

[cycloneye]

A hurricane in 120 hours eh? Luis, is this a warm core TC?

Warm core origin but midlatitud features around it such as an upper low in front of wave.

So will this be a TC or a STC?

Or it may be nothing at all. Let's wait and see how all evolves in comming days.

[yoda]

A hurricane in 120 hours eh? Luis, is this a warm core TC?

Warm core origin but midlatitud features around it such as an upper low in front of wave.

So will this be a TC or a STC?

Or it may be nothing at all. Let's wait and see how all evolves in comming days.

Thanks for all the answers Luis. It is appreciated!

[wxman57]

Definitely purely tropical. A moderate tropical wave interacting with a weak upper-level low to its west. That's how a lot of tropical storms form. Nothing subtropical about it. I see no evidence of any mid or lower-level circulation this afternoon. It does look like moderate SW-WSW winds aloft over the eastern Caribbean should keep any significant system from moving into the Caribbean. If this thing does develop over the next 24-48 hours, the BAMD may have the better idea - WNW-NW then off to the north before reaching the Caribbean. If it fails to develop, then a more westerly track into increasing wind shear appears likely.

[yoda]

Definitely purely tropical. A moderate tropical wave interacting with a weak upper-level low to its west. That's how a lot of tropical storms form. Nothing subtropical about it. I see no evidence of any mid or lower-level circulation this afternoon. It does look like moderate SW-WSW winds aloft over the eastern Caribbean should keep any significant system from moving into the Caribbean. If this thing does develop over the next 24-48 hours, the BAMD may have the better idea - WNW-NW then off to the north before reaching the Caribbean. If it fails to develop, then a more westerly track into increasing wind shear appears likely.

Thanks for the response Wxman57!! It is greaty appreciated!

Will this be a fish if it develops?

[Steve H.]

That's what he just said, but things could get interesting if the BAMM pans out, which is usually the better performer in this region. It may depend also on the bomb that forms off the mid atlantic, and whether or not it gets entrained into it or a ridge builds in underneath that low. Something to watch. If it fails to develop here, it may in the western Carib. Cheers!!

[wxman57]

Could get interesting if BAMM pans out, but that might involve a much weaker system moving into increasing SW-WSW wind shear, so not that interesting. Just thunderstorms for the islands in that case.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Grafic of models at link above when you go at menu and look for 98L.

[yoda]

Thanks Luis!

[Wnghs2007]

Wow this is very interesting. COME ON OTTO!!!!!!!!!:D

[Sanibel]

POINTS:


This is late and large for an Atlantic belt system.


It was deeper a few frames ago and has shown signs of blowing-off from upper hostility since.


It could jump to a second vortex visible at 12N-40W.

[Wnghs2007]

POINTS:


This is late and large for an Atlantic belt system.


It was deeper a few frames ago and has shown signs of blowing-off from upper hostility since.


It could jump to a second vortex visible at 12N-40W.

Oh well. Maybe there wont be an otto this year?

[jabber]

Smells like fish to me... But at least its something to watch. Shear ahead looks pretty strong