Introducing the Charley Box....

[Anonymous]

THE CHARLEY BOX!

Please use this in following seasons. In terms like "Wow, if the storm gets into the Charley box, or Hurricane Whatshername is entering the Charley box".

Now, you are wondering what it is. The Charley Box (NAMED AFTER HURRICANE ANDREW) was created by me, Mike Naso. It is inside that box hurricanes often deepen, sometimes rapidly.

Here are some famous CHARLEY BOX hurricanes. (By the way, the Andrew thing, was a joke. )

Hurricane # 5 September 26-October 10th, 1873


Hurricane # 5 October 9-23, 1910
[img]//weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1910/5/track_s.gif[/img]

Hurricane # 5 October 5-11, 1946


Hurricane # 7 September 18-25, 1948


Hurricane # 8 October 3-16, 1948


Hurricane Isbell October 8-17, 1964


Hurricane Alma June 4-14, 1966


Hurricane Charley August 9-15, 2004

[Stormsfury]

Storms entering the GOM from the Caribbean are going to hit land about 99% of the time ... and generally a storm coming into the GOM in between the Yucatan Channel and Cuba moving S to N are going to impact Florida ...

[Anonymous]

Storms entering the GOM from the Caribbean are going to hit land about 99% of the time ... and generally a storm coming into the GOM in between the Yucatan Channel and Cuba moving S to N are going to impact Florida ...

That has nothing to do with the Charley box.

[Matthew5]

You forgot Hurricane Donna of 1960. Which was the storm that was about as strong as Charley.

[Anonymous]

Yes, but it was already a category 4.

[hurricanetrack]

That box might have some relevance- for real. I mean, look at the examples you pulled out- very good there FB. Now I can say, "Way to go FB". Inside joke- ask Jesse about that one. Usually I say, "Way to go FH". You gotta ask Jesse what it means.

Good job though on digging that up- it might prove to be correct in the future- let's see....

[Wnghs2007]

Wow. I would agree with you there. The Charley box is for real.

[Anonymous]

Use it remember it...I thought people would say it was dumb.

[Anonymous]

Man, remember when you love to go in July, and August to SW FL (I WENT TO MARCO ISLAND IN JUNE OF 1999) and you go into the 90 degree waters? Well that is it. There are 90 degree AND WARMER waters off the SW FL COAST! Inside the Charley box. From now on, if uppel level winds are favorable, always warn of possible rapid intensification if entering the CHARLEY BOX.

[inotherwords]

Wasn't Georges within that box a few years ago? Not sure if that one behaved the way you say. TS Gabrielle is missing, too (2001), which NOAA revised in 2003 to say was briefly a hurricane at landfall in Venice. It followed your Charley Box model and intensified rapidly before hitting us. I was Ground Zero for that one, and I can vouch for the sustained hurricane force winds at landfall. It was far more intense than anything we had here this year, though Jeanne came close.

[Anonymous]

Wait. So the lull was not from Irene in 1999 to Lili in 2002. It was from Irene in 1999 to Gabrielle in 2001? So Gabrielle was a hurricane at landfall?

[Aquawind]

I bet your dad just loves it..Ya big meanie!! Just let him retire in peace!!! LOL

[P.K.]

Looks like that could well be real.

I'm sure I have read about another box in the Atlantic that shows an area where hurricanes can grow rapidly. Can someone remind me what it is called and where it is?

[TS Zack]

Georges must be exempt from it. Georges went right through the Charles Box. The Charles Box is the real thing.

[inotherwords]

So Gabrielle was a hurricane at landfall?

If you read the NOAA reassessment of Gabrielle written in 2002 on their website, it says that "There is an uncertainty associated with official surface wind speed estimates and it is possible that Gabrielle was briefly a hurricane while making landfall." I interviewed one of the NOAA scientists, Mike Black, for a news article in 2002, and he told me the same thing. I don't know how long "briefly" was, but I know it debriefed itself in my back yard pretty well!

The whole writeup is here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001gabrielle.html

So technically it didn't become a hurricane until it was in the Gulf, but it likely was for a short time when it first made landfall. At my house.

Here's the article I wrote, in case anyone's interested. http://www.apple.com/pro/science/black/index.html It's a couple years old so I'm sure they've updated their computer technology quite a bit since then.

[Stormsfury]

Already had a huge debate with Gabrielle ... there were no SFC observations that substantiated Gabrielle was a hurricane at the time of landfall ... a 70 MPH tropical storm ... highest SFC observations over water or land werer under 70 MPH ...

Derecho has a lot more information than I do regarding Gabrielle and the SFC observations.

SF

[inotherwords]

Evidently, according to Mike Black, there were some problems with the recording instrumentation, so I would trust NOAA's assessment that it may have been a borderline hurricane at landfall. Having been through several hurricanes, I can tell you it sure seemed that way to me, too.

I don't know what is accomplished by all this nitpicking, but have at it if you want. I just know what a NOAA scientist told me directly.

[Ixolib]

Georges must be exempt from it. Georges went right through the Charles Box. The Charles Box is the real thing.

But... Georges peaked way early in the game to a pretty significant storm. Perhaps it's energy was already spent before it got in the box

[Anonymous]

I would not count Georges as a CHARLEY BOX storm:

It only intensifyed 5 mph in it. Plus it was moving from the west.

[inotherwords]

I'm not clear, then, what qualifies a storm as a Charley Box storm. Can you clarify this?