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SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 150451Z OCT 04//
WTPN 21 PHNC 150500
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N4 102.5W8 TO 13.8N2
106.8W5 WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 150300Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N6 102.9W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTH
WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHED
ULED FOR 160000Z7.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160500Z2.
//
But if it develops it will be moving away from land.