No Surprises ... significant rainfalls in Georgia/Carolinas

[Stormsfury]

Now all of South Carolina, and a majority of North Carolina under a flood watch as well as portions of Georgia, including Savannah where flash flood warnings are currently in effect.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
332 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON CONTINUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
ALLENDALE...BEAUFORT...BERKELEY...CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER...
HAMPTON...JASPER...NORTHERN COLLETON AND SOUTHERN COLLETON...

A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. RAINFALL
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT...AND IS ULTIMATELY EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF STREAMS...LOW LYING AREAS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR DRIVE
AROUND POLICE BARRICADES. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN WATER...ABANDON
IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WCHS.CSC.NOAA.GOV.

[Stormsfury]

Elevated thunderstorm activity continues to increase here in Lower SC with rainfall rates based on CHS 1-hour totals ranging from ½ to 1" per hour the last couple of hours.

Furthermore, latest RUC soundings and model runs indicate 1"-2" from Savannah and into South Carolina, with Columbia, SC with a bullseye with 2"+. However, with thunderstorm activity (even though elevated) the RUC is off-base and underestimating the thunderstorm potential with PWAT running 1½-1.75".

One-hour rainfall totals-

One-Hour Rainfall total LOOP
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.7 ... kclx.shtml

[Stormsfury]

Latest Radar from Charleston, SC

[JQ Public]

as the maps show and i can verify. the rains have started once again.

[Stormsfury]

Fortunately, the rain here wasn't as heavy as the radar would indicate in my area ... it was more of a generalized steady and sometimes heavy rain, but so far, I've only picked up .60" of rain...

[JQ Public]

i guess this isn't gonna be a one time whopper just a good steady rain over a long period. I guess you have around 3" now right? alltogether i mean

[Stormsfury]

Yep, JQ ... I've picked up nearly 3/4" of rain for today (with another heavy but brief shower, up from the .60" about an hour ago) ... and now a storm total of 3.30" since yesterday.

Savannah, GA, (airport) on the other hand ... 3.03" (Record for April 7th) and still waiting for today's rainfall ... doppler radar estimates of up to 8" in the Savannah area...

[Stormsfury]

Storm totals as of 11 pm EDT - April 8th, 2003

[Stormsfury]

So far, from early this morning until now ... 0.83" has fallen... another line of showers and thunderstorms have formed in Georgia and continues northeast, which should be the next in line for the Carolinas...however, FFG indicates that the rainfall should not reach levels to warrant a Flood watch being issued ATT.

Well, as I type this, CHS has had a change in tune ... and so do I based on new data ...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
315 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
BULLOCH...CANDLER...COASTAL BRYAN...COASTAL CHATHAM...COASTAL
LIBERTY...COASTAL MCINTOSH...EFFINGHAM...EVANS...INLAND BRYAN...
INLAND CHATHAM...INLAND LIBERTY...INLAND MCINTOSH...JENKINS...LONG...
SCREVEN AND TATTNALL...

IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
ALLENDALE...BEAUFORT...BERKELEY...CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER...
HAMPTON...JASPER...NORTHERN COLLETON AND SOUTHERN COLLETON...

HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE NEARLY SATURATED THE GROUND
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DUE TO GROUND CONDITIONS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
BEGINNING TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A THREAT OF RISING WATER IN LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED
TO ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT SINCE IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND STREAMS...CREEKS AND
DRAINAGE DITCHES. TAKE THE SHORTEST PATH TO REACH HIGHER GROUND BUT
DO NOT DRIVE INTO RISING OR FAST MOVING WATER!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION OR UPDATES.

[Stormsfury]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
245 PM EST WED APR 9 2003

PUBLIC:BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE FOR THE SHORT TERM...UPR ENERGY CONTS TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MOB. LEADING EDGE OF STRONG VORT MAX IS
DRIVING E THRU SRN GA WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS ALREADY FORMED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. WILL NOT TAKE LONG BEFORE SWRN EXTREMES OF CWA IS
FEELING THE AFFECTS OF THIS INITIAL PCPN. FIRST CONCERN IS AMOUNT OF
PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT. AFTER COORD W/CAE...JAX...AND ILM...PLAN TO
REISSUE THE FFA FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU AT LEAST EARLY MORNING THU.
ENTIRE CWA HAS HAD PLENTY OF PCPN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INLAND
ZONES AND IMM COASTAL AREAS THE WORST...SPOTS NEAR AND EXCEEDING 5
INCHES. SWRN ZONES NOT AS HIGH ON THE AVERAGE BUT STILL FAIR
AMOUNTS. ALSO BLV THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP WELL ON
THIS INITIAL PCPN FIELD IN SRN GA. EXPCT IT TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST
BEFORE A BROADER AREA FORMS JUST OFFSHORE...AND THEN BEING FORCED
FURTHER N AND DRIVEN INLAND EARLY IN THE MORNING.

NEXT CONCERN IS HOW LONG AND WHERE HIGHEST PCPN ORIENTS ITSELF ON
THU. MOISTURE GETS PULLED N AND NW AS THE SYS BECOMES ALIGNED EARLY
THU ACROSS OUR SRN EXTREME...AND THEN STACKED FURTHER INLAND AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. FEEL THE BEST QPFS WILL BE PULLED N AND NW BUT THE
ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED TO BE WET THRU THU. COLD MID LVL TEMPS BY EARLY
MORNING WILL SUPPORT FURTHER TSTMS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. BY LATE
THU NIGHT THIS SYS SHOULD BEGIN GETTING PUSHED OFF TO THE NE.

ETA/GFS HAVE RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT THU NIGHT AND FRI LIFTING
THE SYS OUT AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY FRI. WILL BE
TAPERING PCPN OFF FRI INITIALLY FROM THE SW. THE BUILDING HIGH PRES
FROM THE W IS THE DOMINANT FTRE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE EXTENDD.
PLAN NO CHGS TO POPS AND ONLY SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM TEMPS ARE A MIX OF MAV AND COOLER
ETA NUMBERS.

[Stormsfury]

Round 3 for South Carolina with a nasty looking squall line entering the Midlands of SC ... Orangeburg, SC in line for a round of rough weather in the next hour.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml

[Stormsfury]

North Charleston about to get blasted by a squall line/mini bow echo segment...

[Anonymous]

And not just heavy rains are likely tonight and tromorrow morning, but also cold temperatures and breezy conditions for this time of year - should be low 50's in the lowcountry tomorrow ! A cold miserable April day ! Bundle up tomorrow !

Ken

So far, from early this morning until now ... 0.83" has fallen... another line of showers and thunderstorms have formed in Georgia and continues northeast, which should be the next in line for the Carolinas...however, FFG indicates that the rainfall should not reach levels to warrant a Flood watch being issued ATT.

Well, as I type this, CHS has had a change in tune ... and so do I based on new data ...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
315 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
BULLOCH...CANDLER...COASTAL BRYAN...COASTAL CHATHAM...COASTAL
LIBERTY...COASTAL MCINTOSH...EFFINGHAM...EVANS...INLAND BRYAN...
INLAND CHATHAM...INLAND LIBERTY...INLAND MCINTOSH...JENKINS...LONG...
SCREVEN AND TATTNALL...

IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
ALLENDALE...BEAUFORT...BERKELEY...CHARLESTON...DORCHESTER...
HAMPTON...JASPER...NORTHERN COLLETON AND SOUTHERN COLLETON...

HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE NEARLY SATURATED THE GROUND
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DUE TO GROUND CONDITIONS...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
BEGINNING TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A THREAT OF RISING WATER IN LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED
TO ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT SINCE IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND STREAMS...CREEKS AND
DRAINAGE DITCHES. TAKE THE SHORTEST PATH TO REACH HIGHER GROUND BUT
DO NOT DRIVE INTO RISING OR FAST MOVING WATER!

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION OR UPDATES.

[JQ Public]

now 3 straight days in the 40's for us in raleigh. can't wait for the weekend. we're expecting 70's and sun

[Stormsfury]

Yep. Springtime may be actually around the corner this time. :o 8)

[TSTRM]

The sun is actually coming out at 1p here in Winston Salem. Have not seen it since Monday. About 3 1/2 inches of rain total during this system with winds gusting to 35 mph. Some street flooding reported Thursday. Temps for most of the week in the 40s. Almost felt like a tropical depression Florida style...with colder tempatures.

[Stormsfury]

The sun is actually coming out at 1p here in Winston Salem. Have not seen it since Monday. About 3 1/2 inches of rain total during this system with winds gusting to 35 mph. Some street flooding reported Thursday. Temps for most of the week in the 40s. Almost felt like a tropical depression Florida style...with colder tempatures.

Same here in Charleston. It's actually in the middle 50's!...*LOL*
It seemed like a colder version of a subtropical/tropical system with the tremendous rainfalls since Monday.

[TSTRM]

The one thing I am going to have to get use to up here in Winston Salem is thunderstorms with the air temp in the 40s. Ironically it appears when we do have such an event as described above, the lightning is mainly cloud to cloud. Yes I know what causes them, but in my 27 years in Florida never had to experiance anything like that.