GOM is closed for tropical developments

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:09 pm

GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER DRY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN A CUTOFF 
LOW OVER MISSOURI AND A STATIONARY MID/UPPER HIGH OVER SE 
MEXICO.  THIS ZONAL FLOW IS ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SNEAK INTO 
THE NW GULF FROM ABOUT NEW ORLEANS TO BROWNSVILLE WITH SLIGHTLY 
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.  HOWEVER IT IS A DRY FRONT 
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND NO UPPER-AIR SUPPORT.  FARTHER E... 
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT ARE NOW A TROUGH SITTING OVER THE 
SUNSHINE STATE THRU NW CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ANY 
SIGNIFICANT RAIN HAS PUSHED OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST WITH THE 
GULF MOSTLY DEEP CONVECTION-FREE.  STATIONARY HIGH OVER MEXICO 
IS LEADING TO PLENTY OF DIURNAL TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS REMAINING OVER 
THE GULF S OF 25N... ALSO FROM T.S. LESTER IN THE EPAC.

The above the 8 PM discussion about the unfavorable GOM.

Looks like el nino type pattern albeit very weak el nino shutting down the GOM is going on as conditions are superhostil.I know that the vast majority like this news about the GOM shutting down because the people want to see more fall weather with more cool temps and less rains especially were it has rained so much in the past 2 months.

#2 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:24 pm

Plus, it's just plain ol' mid-October climatology at work. It appears "Matthew" was our "Juan" for this season, a rare, albeit weak October tropical system that actually originated in the Gulf of Mexico.

Though the coastal flooding problems were a sizeable hassle for a number of residents in south Louisiana, the rains busted a drought for many of us that had been underway since the first week of August...one ushered in, incidentally, by the same unseasonably deep trough that steered Charley into SW Florida.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:51 pm

Hopefully it stays closed

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:54 pm

Still plenty of time though as it is only mid october... A lot can happen in a month and a half as we have seen this yr so far... Gulf is where to look when it becomes favorable again 8-)

stormie_skies · #5 Postby **stormie_skies** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:55 pm

We are getting a significant cold front later this week, I hear .... so no storms for the Texas coast this year....we really lucked out I guess :eek:

As for the front, BRING IT ON! Im sooooooo ready for some nice cool weather!

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:18 pm

The GOM closed for business is some of the best news I've heard all year!!

Good, now the hard-hit parts of Florida can catch their breath.

#7 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:39 pm

October development typically occurs in the Gulf or NW Caribbean. Though conditions aloft are hostile now, and probably for the next 5-7 days, shear should drop off in the southern and central Gulf by the middle of next week. Any lingering thunderstorms from an old frontal boundary or weak tropical wave could be the focus for development. Remember the activity through November for the last 5-6 seasons. I think we'll see another Gulf storm this season, and Florida is typically where such a storm would go.

weatherlover427 · #8 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:53 pm

Can't say this for sure yet. Remember December of last year. :eek:

And especially with how this season has been...

Wnghs2007 · #9 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:October development typically occurs in the Gulf or NW Caribbean. Though conditions aloft are hostile now, and probably for the next 5-7 days, shear should drop off in the southern and central Gulf by the middle of next week. Any lingering thunderstorms from an old frontal boundary or weak tropical wave could be the focus for development. Remember the activity through November for the last 5-6 seasons. I think we'll see another Gulf storm this season, and Florida is typically where such a storm would go.

I do believe you are correct wxman57 any front that does get stuck down there when shear is low and that sits there will have a chance to develop into something. Hopefully there wont be any more but who knows you may just be correct as I have a feeling you are.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:41 am

As soon the cold fronts move down into the gulf then rip to development.

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:50 am

that is not at all correct, cycloneeye

I have to agree with wxman. we have often seen GOM storms or hurricanes after the first or even second MAJOR cold front has passed through the region. The current front is relatively minor

#12 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:17 am

cycloneye wrote:As soon the cold fronts move down into the gulf then rip to development.

Climotalogically...you are correct. Over the last 100 years...you only get about 1 storm every 7 or 8 years in the GOM in November. I figure we won't see anything in the GOM for at least the next 2 weeks in October...so we are lloking at November development if there is any at all.

However...It can still happen. Remember Juan...Kate (although she moved into the GOM)...Mitch (same as Kate)....Gordan. Of course...we are less likely to see anything form in the GOM than move into the GOM...and those storms that move into the GOM are usually headed for the west coast of Florida.

GalvestonDuck · #13 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:30 am

*runs in, slams the door, locks it, boards it up, and caulks around the edges with silicone*

AND STAY OUT!

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:38 am

ROFLMAO at Duckie!!!! And you have webbed feet too!!!!

#15 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:18 pm

Y'all gotta remember, we've already had 1 historical-level strong cold front this year (the one that brought Charley to SW FL)...

caneman · #16 Postby **caneman** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:32 pm

In a season such as this one, I wouldn't rule out or discount anything.

Josephine96 · #17 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:49 pm

Season doesn't officially enter the post season till 12/1.. Anything can happen between now and then

Johnny · #18 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:53 pm

And next year will be here before we know it and the fun, stress, anxiety and fear will start all over again. :eek:

GOM is closed for tropical developments

GOM is closed for tropical developments

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