Worldwide Tropical Update: 13 October

[senorpepr]

The 13/03Z update is posted featuring...

* Tropical Storm Lester (15E)
* Tropical Storm Tokage (27W)

Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[senorpepr]

Besides our featured tropical cyclones, we're monitoring a few invest systems.

Invest 97L
31.0N 33.3W (635mi SW of Ponta Delgada, Azores)
35 mph; 1002 mb / 29.59”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection has increased throughout the day near the center of circulation. The area has the potential for subtropical development as it moves toward warmer waters.

Invest 91E
13.3N 105.1W (405mi S of Manzanillo, Mexico)
30 mph; 1008 mb / 29.77”
Dvorak estimates: 1.5/1.5
This system is slowly moving towards land and is interacting with TS Lester. As this interaction occurs, the probability for development is limited.

Invest 96W
24.7N 131.4E (245mi E of Okinawa, Japan)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection with this wave is very minimal and signs of development are very limited.

Invest 98W
6.1N 166.7E (320mi WNW of Majuro, Marshall Islands)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Although somewhat sheared on the southwest and northwest, this wave is fairly hearty on infrared imagery as it moves westward. Convection has refired and the JTWC has taken note and is monitoring the further progress.

Invest 97B
16.5N 90.1E (400mi W of Yangon, Myanmar)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection has redeveloped in association with this wave. The possibility for development is there, but somewhat limited due to 97B’s proximity to land. This invest is also not monitored by the JTWC’s outlook bulletin. No additional data was found from the IMD, either.

Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.

[senorpepr]

The 13/15Z update is posted featuring...

* Tropical Storm Lester (15E)
* Tropical Storm Tokage (27W)

Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[senorpepr]

Besides our featured tropical cyclones, we're monitoring a few invest systems.

Invest 97L
31.0N 33.8W (655mi SW of Ponta Delgada, Azores)
35 mph; 1003 mb / 29.62”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection has increased near the center of circulation. The area has the potential for subtropical development as it moves toward warmer waters.

Invest 96W
24.4N 132.5E (315mi ESE of Okinawa, Japan)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection with this wave is very minimal and signs of development are very limited.

Invest 98W
6.5N 165.9E (370mi WNW of Majuro, Marshall Islands)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Although somewhat sheared on the southwest and northwest, this wave is fairly hearty on infrared imagery as it moves westward. Convection has redeveloped and the JTWC has taken note and is monitoring the further progress.

Invest 97B
15.7N 88.5E (480mi S of Calcutta, India)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection has redeveloped in association with this wave. This invest is also not monitored by the JTWC’s outlook bulletin. No additional data was found from the IMD, either.

Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.

[senorpepr]

TCFA has been issued for 98W...

Code: Select all

WTPN21 PGTW 131430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131421ZOCT04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.5N1 165.8E0 TO 8.3N1
159.4E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES
NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 6.7N3 165.5E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 6.0N6 166.2E5, APPROXI-
MATELY 185 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 130624Z6 QUIKSCAT INDICATES THE LLCC HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
BOUNDED BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141430Z3.

See the JTWC for the latest information.

[chadtm80]

[senorpepr]

Thanks for the graphic, Chad!

[Matthew5]

senorpepr, What do you think of the chances of 97L becoming something...I don't think it looks very good at this hour...

[senorpepr]

senorpepr, What do you think of the chances of 97L becoming something...I don't think it looks very good at this hour...

Actually, I think it has a chance... within the next day or so. As that timeframe closes, though, the chances for subtropical development change to extratropical development. Bottom line, in my opinion, is that if 97L becomes STD #16 and/or STS Otto, it will be short-lived as it rapidly becomes extratropical and heads toward France and the United Kingdom while deepening.