GOM low pressure on Thursday off SE LA. coast

[Stormcenter]

This is from the New Orleans,LA NWS
afternoon discussion.
Hey there is nothing much to talk about so
I thought I post it.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE FALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LA COAST THURSDAY
MORNING IF THE GFS FORECAST IS CORRECT. THE MAIN CHANGE THIS
FORECAST IS TO RAISE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON THURSDAY WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG AND DEEP UPWARD OMEGA DUE TO STRONG
PVA...WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVER EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN A
BRIEF SHOT OF VERY COOL AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

[TS Zack]

Something to Watch!
The Gulf is a prime spot for development this time of year with these troughs dropping South and stalling. This looks like it will ride up the trough though!

Bad News for us we can't take anymore rain!

[Derek Ortt]

this has 0 chance of being a tropical low

[ColdFront77]

0% chance that can't go up?

Yes, I see the 50 to 60 or so knot shear across the entire GOM.

[BayouVenteux]

Something to Watch!
The Gulf is a prime spot for development this time of year with these troughs dropping South and stalling. This looks like it will ride up the trough though!

Bad News for us we can't take anymore rain!

Actually Zack, though it was a true drought-buster in every sense, the AMOUNT of rain in SE Louisiana wasn't the problem so much as the duration of the winds caused by the both the baroclinic and direct effects of minimal TS Matthew. The persistent onshore winds between Thursday and Monday pushed tidal waters up in many parishes adjacent to the coast and the tidal lakes, which kept the rainwater and tidal floodwater from draining promptly following the low's center moving inland. Locally, we experienced a good bit of flooding here in Ascension Parish and over in Livingston Parish in the areas near Lakes Maurepas and Pontchartrain. Fortunately, since Monday afternoon, the west to northwest winds have picked up and the areas affected are finally starting to see the water moving out in earnest.

It looks like, based on successive runs of the GFS, that the NWS is upping our odds for rain for tomorrow night through early afternoon Thursday as a genuine autumn cold front blows in and a low forms along the Gulf Coast . Nothing even remotely tropical though, as the low is progged to skirt east and then northeast, a path typical of the season.

Man, if it was late December into January, the snow-dogs would be howling to our north and east over this one!

[HollynLA]

As I sloshed in knee deep water today to get to my front door and examined the buckled living room floors and to see the collapsed pier covering, I would safely say we don't need anymore rain for quite a while here. The water is not draining fast enough. Maybe a foot since Sunday.

[Stormsfury]

That potent s/w embedded within a FULL LATITUDE trough may be responsible for some severe weather should the limited amount of moisture be able to gel enough into a potent squall line ... the GFS/ECMWF/CMC/NOGAPS/UKMET all have this second feature along with the MM5 which behind it bring down some pretty chilly air in its wake ...

SF

[dhweather]

This will be cold core and a rain maker.

[george_r_1961]

This scenario should not produce anything tropical in origin. The low will be purely baroclinic as the environment will not aupport anything tropical...although a strong cold core system is possible

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like there will be any significant low at all. Models went a little goofy 24hrs ago.