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WTPZ35 KNHC 122024
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESTER ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO TO ZIHUATANEJO.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESTER WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 85 KM... SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
LESTER IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE VERY NEAR OR ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...16.3 N... 99.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
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WTPZ45 KNHC 122023
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004
THE CYCLONE HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION TO YIELD
A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUATING TO A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED ON THIS BASIS.
CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER
WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...THE STORM WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
BASED ON AN EARLIER TRMM PASS...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. MOTION IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6...AND ONLY A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE. THE MORE NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN. PERHAPS THERE IS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LESTER. IN ANY EVENT...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.3N 99.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 100.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.9N 101.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.3N 102.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 17.5N 108.5W 65 KT
The biggest threat from Lester is the flooding rains that are now falling in the Mexican coast and with the mountains those rains are enhanced and mudslides may happen but hopefully there is no tragic news comming from that part of the world.
