Renaming Ivan, not renaming Ivan

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The Big Dog
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Renaming Ivan, not renaming Ivan

#1 Postby The Big Dog » Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:43 am

Been wondering about this, not that it's keeping me up at night...

Ok, a piece of Ivan split off, came across Florida, went into the GOM, reformed, and because it was a renmant of Ivan, the NHC called it Ivan. I remember seeing the discussion for the first advisory on the new Ivan, mentioning something about animated discussion at the NHC, I guess about whether to name it Ivan or Matthew.

(Kind of like, if Bob's brain is transplanted into Joe's body, is he now Bob or Joe?)

So here's my question: If both pieces of the original Ivan went off and reformed somewhere, would they have both been Ivan? Sounds pretty dumb, but by their way of thinking, then yes. Come on... somebody please tell me I'm wrong.
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 am

Interesting question ...

I guess there COULD be a yes to that ... although I still believe that the main embodiment that was Ivan took off and was absorbed in the Mid-Atlantic and moved into the North Atlantic ...

That piece that broke off was at the tail end of the trough which absorbed Ivan and at one point, there was no SFC circulation ... by admission in the discussion from the TPC, a SFC circulation developed (which tells me that one had NOT been present before) ... therefore, should have been named Matthew ...

There would have been a lot of confusion since the media hyped it as the ex-Ivan and the decision may have been more media influenced than meteorologically influenced ...

Goes along with the same reason why the unnamed hurricane of 1991 (born from the Perfect Storm or the Hallowen Storm) remained unnamed ... TPC did not designate a name as to avoid confusion with the at the time, the powerful extratropical storm that later acquired tropical characteristics ...

SF
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:59 pm

Technically, the system that swallowed Lisa was Matthew. Nicole was in the Gulf. Otto made landfall as a TS in LA. And Paula, was a STS.
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#4 Postby dhweather » Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:01 pm

Joe Bob Ivan - nice ring! lol
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Matthew5

#5 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:08 pm

I 100 percent agree with floydBuster...
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#6 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:32 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Technically, the system that swallowed Lisa was Matthew. Nicole was in the Gulf. Otto made landfall as a TS in LA. And Paula, was a STS.


Only by your own technical reasoning. I haven't seen this reasoning anywhere else. Matthew5's agreement with you doesn't count as seeing it anywhere else, btw. I think you would be hard pressed to find many that would agree with your reasoning in the educated knowledgeable weather community.
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#7 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:50 pm

I just have my options on some things vbhoutex.

For one 93L, was forced north. While Lisa went to the south in at the same time Lisa Convection fall apart. Then the low pressure area from 93L went north in developed. That is just what I saw that day...

As for Ivan two...That piece was a mid to low level piece or vort max that broke off the back side of the extratropical Ivan. Which then crossed the Atlantic. In which case gave Europe rain. I have seen systems do this quit a few times over the years. In they almost always looked at as new storms...

This is all my option...
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Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 12, 2004 5:09 pm

cannot follow you at all, floyd.

you are 2 storms ahead of where we were.

how did matt swallow lisa? unless of course you are counting lisa and reformed ivan as separate systems.

ivan is ivan, that was the vort max that reformed
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#9 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 12, 2004 6:49 pm

Well, considering Ivan was Matthew. Then Nicole swalled Lisa. Than Otto was in the Gulf, followed by STS Paula.
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#10 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:27 pm

Floydbuster, I agree completely. The NHC should have issued advisories on 93L days before it merged with Lisa. I believe since Lisa was a weakling, 93L was stronger and should have been Nicole, with Ivan 2 being Matthew. I have a feeling in post-analysis, we'll have another storm (or two) from these 2 systems.
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SouthernWx

#11 Postby SouthernWx » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:04 pm

I have the storm that NHC renamed "Ivan" listed as "unnamed", and that's the way it'll remain to my dying day...

I personally believe renaming anything Ivan several days after and 1600 miles SSW of where Ivan dissipated (over SW Virginia) was a mistake. So does James Spann, one of the most highly respected meteorologists in Alabama history. So does Ken Cook, a veteran Atlanta chief meteorologist and former NWS meteorologist....a gentleman with over 34 years experience.

It's not just amateur meteorologists who question the decision made by NHC....there are even meteorologists at NHC who were opposed to renaming the new GOM storm Ivan....the report from NHC stated as such. I imagine there was just as much contraversy inside those walls as you've seen outside.


I'm personally opposed to naming anything Ivan after the carnage caused as the hurricane plowed inland west of Pensacola....from a public relations standpoint if nothing else; to avoid further stress and trauma to those who'd just experienced the core of this very destructive hurricane.


I also question the decision to keep "Lisa" as a viable tropical cyclone...in light of strong evidence it was absorbed by the much larger tropical disturbance approaching from the ESE. However, this decision doesn't trouble me nearly as much as the NHC decision regarding Ivan's renaming. Reasons are 1) Lisa was not a threat or had impacted any land area; and 2) in the days before satellite imagery, it's extremely unlikely Lisa would have ever been declared "dissipated" or changed names...because no one would have known such an interaction between tropical systems took place so far at sea (it would have been counted as only one named/ numbered storm).
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Matthew5

#12 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:27 pm

Thats what I think to Southernwx...

Also a tropical distrabance. The one that hit Hati, back on May 24th. I also quastion to this day.
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#13 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Oct 13, 2004 2:39 am

Ok the way I saw it is like this; the upper level part of Ivan got catapulted eastward into the Atlantic while the remnant surface feature made an unlikely SW track from off the coast of VA down to FL then westward across FL into the GOM...where it was once again re named Ivan...as it should have been. The way I see it the surface feature is the primary feature of a system..even though upper level support..or the lack therof..determines whether or not we have tropical cyclone. If the lower level feature fizzled and the upper feature redeveloped..and this would be very unlikely..then the next name should be assigned. Of course this is only my humble opinion :)
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#14 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:19 am

George-r-1961...The lower levels of the cyclone where distroyed by the mountains. While the mid to upper levels moved across the ocean into old Europe. A small vort max reformed on the southern Side of the "upper energy" of what was Ivan. That area moved down the coast over the next week. Then started to reform off the Florida east coast. Making landfal the next day. Once in the Gulf it developed a Mid levels(Convection or mid level support)...Then it became defined became a depression then so on...
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#15 Postby HalloweenGale » Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:36 am

what about the christmas hurricane of 1994?
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#16 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Oct 13, 2004 11:00 am

HalloweenGale wrote:what about the christmas hurricane of 1994?


Under reanalysis by the AOML HURDAT ... indications are that it did at one point become a subtropical or even tropical for a brief period and is on the cards for decision ... I have a lot of technical information available (at home, not here at work) and also there's another thread on here or in US Weather Watch (do a search for Christmas Storm of 1994) ... I have done a lot of research and asked many questions myself regarding the Christmas Storm of 1994 ...

SF
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#17 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:02 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Technically, the system that swallowed Lisa was Matthew. Nicole was in the Gulf. Otto made landfall as a TS in LA. And Paula, was a STS.

If only that had happened, we would've only been 5 away from the end of the list :(
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#18 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:35 am

Matthew5 wrote:George-r-1961...The lower levels of the cyclone where distroyed by the mountains. While the mid to upper levels moved across the ocean into old Europe. A small vort max reformed on the southern Side of the "upper energy" of what was Ivan. That area moved down the coast over the next week. Then started to reform off the Florida east coast. Making landfal the next day. Once in the Gulf it developed a Mid levels(Convection or mid level support)...Then it became defined became a depression then so on...


Matthew there was enough of a low level feature left to cause veering winds as it passed to my north. :roll:
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