TCFA issued for Invest 95W

[senorpepr]

WTPN21 PGTW 120000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 112351ZOCT04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N5 153.2E1 TO 12.0N3
149.1E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 111730Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.4N6 152.5E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.4N6 152.5E3,
APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 111800Z1
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDERNEATH THE AXIS
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY
LOW, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVORABLE. A 111958Z5
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTER LLCC WITH STRONG EQUATORIAL INFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 130000Z4.//