More action in atlantic,OTTO forming soon? 97L invest up

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cycloneye
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More action in atlantic,OTTO forming soon? 97L invest up

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:18 pm

Code: Select all

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SYSTEM
COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD WARMER WATER.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The above is the 5:30 PM TWO.HURAKAN or Sandy shared an excellent pic yesterday showing it and if it dips more south it well be OTTO so let's watch it.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:50 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby rainstorm » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:25 pm

very possible
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#3 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:27 pm

You see the storm here on the Upper right

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

97L Invest is also up now...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
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#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:35 pm

Wow, that was quick. It went from nothing to a possible entity. Let's see what happens...
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First model plots for 97L

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:55 pm

Code: Select all

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20041011  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041011  1800   041012  0600   041012  1800   041013  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    33.8N  33.8W   31.7N  34.6W   29.7N  33.9W   29.1N  30.8W
  BAMM    33.8N  33.8W   32.2N  34.9W   30.5N  35.3W   29.4N  34.7W
  A98E    33.8N  33.8W   31.2N  36.1W   28.9N  35.5W   27.5N  31.9W
  LBAR    33.8N  33.8W   32.0N  34.8W   30.7N  35.1W   30.2N  34.6W
  SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          48KTS          55KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041013  1800   041014  1800   041015  1800   041016  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    30.7N  27.6W   34.1N  27.2W   36.4N  30.6W   39.3N  32.1W
  BAMM    29.0N  32.8W   32.0N  29.4W   35.3N  31.5W   38.3N  34.4W
  A98E    27.4N  27.9W   27.3N  21.3W   27.0N  15.8W   26.1N  13.1W
  LBAR    30.2N  34.1W   31.3N  32.2W   32.7N  30.7W   33.3N  29.5W
  SHIP        61KTS          70KTS          73KTS          72KTS
  DSHP        61KTS          70KTS          73KTS          72KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  33.8N LONCUR =  33.8W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
  LATM12 =  36.4N LONM12 =  32.0W DIRM12 = 203DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
  LATM24 =  38.6N LONM24 =  31.5W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   70NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   
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#6 Postby kevin » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:21 pm

Ships _really_ wants to intensify this!
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#7 Postby kevin » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:24 pm

OMG! Watch out Western Sahara... A98 has its eyes on you. :eek:
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:41 pm

I said it, and is there!
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#9 Postby feederband » Mon Oct 11, 2004 6:13 pm

well anyone have any thoughts on what possible otto may want to do.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 6:17 pm

feederband wrote:well anyone have any thoughts on what possible otto may want to do.


If Otto forms into a subtropical or tropical system it will not bother anyone as it will be a fish in the eastern atlantic as it will move along the perifery of the ridge SW,West,NW then to turn north. :fishing: :fishing: :fishing: :fishing: :fishing:

Eventually our friends in the UK will have to deal with this.
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 6:56 pm

Code: Select all

  A
LARGE POWERFUL DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS NEAR 32N32W MOVING SSW INTO
THE AREA.  THE LOW NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IT MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY WARM... AND WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE...WATER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOW FORMING AROUND THE
SYSTEM.


The above is the 8 PM discussion about 97L.
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00:00 UTC model suite

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:48 pm

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20041012  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041012  0000   041012  1200   041013  0000   041013  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    33.0N  33.3W   31.3N  33.9W   30.0N  33.1W   30.3N  31.0W
  BAMM    33.0N  33.3W   31.8N  34.1W   30.9N  34.5W   30.4N  34.4W
  A98E    33.0N  33.3W   31.0N  34.7W   29.6N  34.1W   29.6N  31.4W
  LBAR    33.0N  33.3W   31.6N  33.8W   30.7N  33.8W   30.6N  33.6W
  SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          50KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041014  0000   041015  0000   041016  0000   041017  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    31.8N  29.5W   34.9N  31.0W   37.5N  34.0W   40.7N  34.1W
  BAMM    30.3N  33.8W   32.6N  32.2W   35.7N  33.3W   39.2N  34.8W
  A98E    31.1N  27.9W   31.9N  22.4W   31.4N  17.9W   29.7N  16.1W
  LBAR    30.9N  33.2W   31.8N  32.0W   32.8N  31.3W   32.9N  29.4W
  SHIP        55KTS          64KTS          68KTS          65KTS
  DSHP        55KTS          64KTS          68KTS          65KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  33.0N LONCUR =  33.3W DIRCUR = 210DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
  LATM12 =  35.2N LONM12 =  32.0W DIRM12 = 194DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
  LATM24 =  37.5N LONM24 =  31.5W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  125NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
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#13 Postby rainstorm » Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:20 pm

threat to hatteras?
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:21 pm

rainstorm wrote:threat to hatteras?


No not at all.
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10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:31 pm

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ABNT20 KNHC 120227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 570 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND BUT WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES TOWARD WARMER WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#16 Postby michaelwmoss » Mon Oct 11, 2004 11:29 pm

I agree with the post about it getting pulled around the ridge and it basically being a "Fish" storm.

It is still a very well defined "Cold" core system. There is only minor T-storm activity around the center at this point in time.

Could change though. I have been wrong before :)
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