EPAC is active again,TD15-E forms,forecast to be a cane

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

This system is very close to the mexican coast.

[James]

Here comes Lester...

[Steve H.]

Getting near the close of the EPAC season. One more threatening storm for the US. As I noted two weeks ago, the third week of October will produce a major cane in the western Caribbean. I'll stick to my story here, though I could be off a week. JB seems to think it will be next week sometime. We'll see. Models have been flirting with the idea, so let's see if they show something a bit more definitive in the coming days/week. Maybe the last shot of the tropics this year to threaten the CONUS. Cheers!! Thanks for talking about the tropics Luis. Seems like we've gotten off track. Cheers!!

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all


WTPZ35 KNHC 112026
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO
ACAPULCO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  96.8
WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO ANGEL
MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH ... 5 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER ANY MOTION TO THE
NORTH COULD BRING STRONG WINDS ON THE COAST.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N... 96.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 PM PDT.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
$$



The people in the Mexican Coast must watch TD15-E tonight tropical storm Lester just in case it deviates more northward.

Code: Select all

TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HENCE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
GUATEMALA IS IMPARTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.

STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BEEN QUITE WEAK OVER THE AREA...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.  A CONTINUED GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST SINCE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPS...WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. 
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 14.4N  96.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.4N  97.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N  97.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.2N  98.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.2N  99.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 103.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 106.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    65 KT

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all


WTPZ45 KNHC 120212
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004
 
A 11/2345Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY SHOWED THAT TD-15E HAS MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION. IT ALSO INDICATED A SMALL
BUT TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED ABOUT HALF WAY
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE T2.5...OR 35
KT...INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB. HOWEVER...I AM HOLDING THE
INTENSITY AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION ...
ALBEIT QUITE COLD AT -80C AND COLDER...HAS ONLY PERSISTED FOR
FOR THE PAST 4 HOURS OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE SPECIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP SINCE THE MODELS AT 12Z AND
18Z EITHER INITIALIZED THE CENTER TO FAR EAST LIKE NOGAPS...OR
BARELY INITIALIZED IT AT ALL LIKE THE UKMET AND CANDIAN MODELS. THE
GFS DID INITIALIZE THE VORTEX PROPERLY...BUT IT QUICKLY WEAKENS IT
AND ALLOWS IT TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT
TYPICALLY LIES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS
HEAVILY TOWARD THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN
MODELS...AND THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL BUT TIGHT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AS
NOTED IN EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE
OVERPASS. AS SUCH...IT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH. THE CURRENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY HAVE VERTICALLY
STRETCHED THE VORTEX ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM WINDS NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION PRECLUDES NAMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS
MODEL KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER 29C-30C SSTS AND UNDER LESS THAN 10 KT
OF SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS IN
ORDER. IF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR EAST OF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT GET DRAWN
INTO THE SYSTEM...THEN MORE INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AFTER 36HR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.9N  97.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N  98.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N  99.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 15.2N 100.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N 102.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N 105.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 110.0W    70 KT
 



[HURAKAN]

Lester will have to wait another six hours to make its 2004 debut.

[Derek Ortt]

based upon the sat imagery, it looks as if this is still a TD, and not too well organized. Likely will need to see some more banding before this becomes a storm