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TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004
AMSU DATA FROM NOAA SATELLITES SUGGEST THAT NICOLE MAY HAVE
DEVELOPED A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL WARM CORE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDING. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. IN A FEW DAYS NICOLE IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY...A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY ON MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO
PULL NICOLE NORTHWARD SOON. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...FOLLOWED BY A CURVE
TO THE LEFT WITH DECELERATION AS THE NICOLE BEGINS TO INTERACT AND
MERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS REASONING.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 32.0N 66.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 34.3N 66.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 39.0N 65.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 41.0N 65.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1800Z 41.5N 66.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
