Possible Tropical Threat to Louisiana

[donsutherland1]

Earlier, I had noted:


1) Tropical Storm Matthew is well east of the position I had noted earlier.
2) The easterly motion indicates that Louisiana is all but certainly in the clear.

This error of judgment was corrected in subsequent posts in which a track was outlined. As stated in yesterday's discussion, I had explained the impact of the reported eastward movement that created a bias too far to the east.

Nevertheless, I greatly regret this error, which spoiled the synoptic idea (which was quite good) and the later reasonable track ideas, both of which indicated Louisiana landfalls.

I just wanted it to be clear that I am reviewing all my posts on Matthew, as I do with every tropical storm/hurricane to see what went right and what went wrong.

[Ixolib]

Earlier, I had noted:


1) Tropical Storm Matthew is well east of the position I had noted earlier.
2) The easterly motion indicates that Louisiana is all but certainly in the clear.

This error of judgment was corrected in subsequent posts in which a track was outlined. As stated in yesterday's discussion, I had explained the impact of the reported eastward movement that created a bias too far to the east.

Nevertheless, I greatly regret this error, which spoiled the synoptic idea (which was quite good) and the later reasonable track ideas, both of which indicated Louisiana landfalls.

I just wanted it to be clear that I am reviewing all my posts on Matthew, as I do with every tropical storm/hurricane to see what went right and what went wrong.

Don - Been watching your stuff for a while now and the info you provide is not only educational, but informative. And I appreciate your gracious manner - it certainly serves as a great example for others to follow!!

[Steve]

I agree with Ixolib. Don is one of the better forecasters around the web. It's easy for anyone to talk a good game or to criticize something in hindsight, but when someone puts their neck on the line with actual forecasts (including coordinates) and gives reasoning, you have to respect that.

Steve

[Rainband]

I agree as well. Awesome!!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Ixolib, Steve,and Rainsform for the very kind words.

I generally try to assess my performance in as objective a fashion as possible so as to identify errors and try to learn from them.

Best wishes.