8 PM Discussion about Matthew=Hybrid system

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cycloneye
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8 PM Discussion about Matthew=Hybrid system

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 09, 2004 7:03 pm

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...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW...RE-UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS...IS CENTERED NEAR 27.2N 91.3W...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SW OF
THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AT 10/0000 UTC MOVING E 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW INTO MATTHEW EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND THAT AS THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPED OVER
THE CENTER...THE WINDS INCREASED AGAIN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES NOW SHOW THE CENTER
BECOMING EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE W OF THE STRONGEST TSTMS. MATTHEW
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A HYBRID STRUCTURE WITH A SFC TROF BOUNDING
THE SYSTEM TO THE W FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER SWD INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS NOW
MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE W GULF...AND IT IS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE THAT MATTHEW COULD DEVELOP A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. REGARDLESS...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE CENTER...WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 87W-92W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ONSHORE THE GULF COAST
BETWEEN BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA AND PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
EWD TO FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS EVEN AS THE CENTER OF
MATTHEW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
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PTrackerLA
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#2 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Oct 09, 2004 7:47 pm

Would that "traliling frontal boundary" cause south Louisiana to see more rain?
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Oct 09, 2004 7:53 pm

Matthew now looks almost completely extratropical and resembles a strong southern stream storm system ... large squall line of convection extending NNE/SSW and the low level circ. almost completely exposed again due to shear ... and IMHO, for most, if not all it's life cycle, it's been more SUBtropical than tropical with more baroclinicity supporting the system.

SF
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 09, 2004 8:18 pm

One of the weirdest structured storms I've seen in a while with the center exposed and everything else covered. The SW flow edge to its west is a bandsaw of shear. It will probably burst again but to no avail. The Gulf is full of these naked storms...
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#5 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:25 pm

You're right Sanibel - very strange looking storm....have this sudden doughnut craving after looking at it though LOL
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