WTNT44 KNHC 092025
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004
AFTER A PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IT IS
ONLY A CHANGE OF 5 KNOTS...WHICH IS WITHIN THE NOISE LEVEL OF
ESTIMATING INTENSITY...BUT IT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND A TROPICAL STORM. LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE
REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 997 MB. SINCE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURS AGAIN IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHERLESS...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE LOUISIANA COAST AS A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER...THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY IN
GUSTS DURING HEAVY SQUALLS.
GIVING THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
AROUND THE EASTERN CIRCULATION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 27.3N 91.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 31.5N 90.9W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/0600Z 33.5N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/1800Z 36.0N 91.5W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004
...MATTHEW REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ISSUED...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT
210 MILES...SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH
OF MATTHEW.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...27.3 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004
...MATTHEW REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ISSUED...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT
210 MILES...SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH
OF MATTHEW.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...27.3 N... 91.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.5N 90.9W 33 X X X 33 BURAS LA 40 X X X 40
33.5N 91.0W 12 6 1 X 19 NEW ORLEANS LA 49 X X X 49
36.0N 91.5W X 10 3 X 13 NEW IBERIA LA 45 X X X 45
ST MARKS FL X 1 2 X 3 PORT ARTHUR TX 2 X 1 X 3
APALACHICOLA FL X 2 2 X 4 GULF 29N 85W X 2 1 X 3
PANAMA CITY FL X 3 2 X 5 GULF 29N 87W 3 4 X X 7
PENSACOLA FL 4 6 1 X 11 GULF 28N 89W 15 X X X 15
MOBILE AL 16 2 X X 18 GULF 28N 91W 99 X X X 99
GULFPORT MS 27 1 X X 28 GULF 28N 93W 39 X X X 39
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON
D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
31.5N 90.9W 33 X X X 33 BURAS LA 40 X X X 40
33.5N 91.0W 12 6 1 X 19 NEW ORLEANS LA 49 X X X 49
36.0N 91.5W X 10 3 X 13 NEW IBERIA LA 45 X X X 45
ST MARKS FL X 1 2 X 3 PORT ARTHUR TX 2 X 1 X 3
APALACHICOLA FL X 2 2 X 4 GULF 29N 85W X 2 1 X 3
PANAMA CITY FL X 3 2 X 5 GULF 29N 87W 3 4 X X 7
PENSACOLA FL 4 6 1 X 11 GULF 28N 89W 15 X X X 15
MOBILE AL 16 2 X X 18 GULF 28N 91W 99 X X X 99
GULFPORT MS 27 1 X X 28 GULF 28N 93W 39 X X X 39
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON
D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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