more shear

[rbaker]

as I write this, the center is becoming more exposed again, with the thunderstorms being sheared out again to the ne. Recon might have been in there at the right time at the right place for the last vortex msg. Believe it will stay a td now.

[TS Zack]

A Tropical Storm doesn't need to have a center under the convection/ Look at Allison, did she have a an exposed center?

Yes

[cycloneye]

The center is semiexposed as it shows at the visble pic.

[rbaker]

take a look at the geostationary sat pic and you will see its even more exposed since that latest 1915z shot.
Its very questionable on whether it will hold ts status after being downgraded at 11am to a td. I don't believe they will jump back and forth between a td and ts just because one hr it starts to go and the next hr it doesn't. Its going to need more consistansy than that.
Having said that they did find a pressure of 997mb which does support a ts for sure.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Every single time someone says something like this, I point them to one storm:

Hurricane Earl (Category 2 100 MPH, FL 102 KT (115 MPH))

Don't underestimate storms.

[rbaker]

as politicians say, this ain't no earl. Its been osalating back and forth between a td and ts. If you took the same plane out there 2 hrs from now, after the center becomes exposed again you will find that the pressure has gone back up again.
Im not underestimating a weak ts or td, the shear is there and has been for its life cycle.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Didn't say it was, rbaker. I'm pointing out that sheared systems can be easily underestimated.

The trend is there......as long as it can keep strong thunderstorms just to the east of the center...it can strengthen steadily especially since baroclinicity increases towards the coast.

[Derek Ortt]

this is NOT a tropical cyclone.

the system does not have to have the center directly under the convection to intensify. it will easily maintain itself while exposed and then briefly rapidly intensify (about 2-3 hours) once the center mvoes back under the convection, which may occur once more before landfall

[dhweather]

this is NOT a tropical cyclone.

the system does not have to have the center directly under the convection to intensify. it will easily maintain itself while exposed and then briefly rapidly intensify (about 2-3 hours) once the center mvoes back under the convection, which may occur once more before landfall

Aw Derek, come on man, don't take the fun out of Ivan III !!!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Derek this is a tropical cyclone. If it weren't, it wouldn't be called Tropical Storm Matthew...

Maybe you meant to say something else there...

[rbaker]

well doc, if what you say is true, this is not a true tropical storm, and yes I know the arguement that not all ts or canes are not symetric.

Have you seen any wind levels of tropical storm force at ground level or buoys? Recon reported 41 kts at flt level, which is below ts status at surface. Your right about one thing , the trend is there and has been about the system getting sheared. And if it has a baroclinic feature maybe we shouldn't be calling this a true ts. Of course its not our call.

As Derek Ortt put it its the oddest looking td or ts he has ever seen from inception, and I agree except for maybe last night.

[dhweather]

I'm not gonna dis Derek in any way.

The system may or may not be purely tropical.
It might just be hybrid.

[Air Force Met]

Derek this is a tropical cyclone. If it weren't, it wouldn't be called Tropical Storm Matthew...

Maybe you meant to say something else there...

I think what he is saying is this: This system is not deepening tropically...it is deepening mostly due to baroclinic processes. If it wasn't for that...this system would be nothing.

[Derek Ortt]

thats what I have been saying. This si deepening through the quasi-geostrophic theory principles, which are nothing at all like those which givern the typical tropical cyclone deepening dynamics

[ColdFront77]

That's fine. Development nonetheless is of interest to the weather enthusiast.

[rbaker]

Matthew is doing the same thing as last night about this time. Convection is warming and getting a little further from the center. Also noticing in back of Matthew a huge jet stream type feature with subtropical moisture coming in from s tx and mexico, which could just obliterate whats left of the exposed center.

[rtd2]

"Derek this is a tropical cyclone. If it weren't, it wouldn't be called Tropical Storm Matthew...

Maybe you meant to say something else there..."





wrong...as I said last night-This system is EXTRATROPICAL or a HYBRID system much like allison....a big rainmaker! but no strengthning past 50mph IMHO!