TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1110 AM SAT OCT 9TH 2004
Tropical Storm Matthew has formed as of late last night in the Gulf of Mexico. The good news is.. by the time he makes landfall.. He will probably be nothing more than a minimal TS if that.
Matthew has been sheared and basically decapitated over the last few hours as intense shearing winds have ripped into him and most of his convection is well away from his center.
Matthew is not even a TS anymore as of the 11am advisory from the NHC. Matthew may continue to weaken, which would possibly drop him to an open wave. Or he may even strengthen somehow and regain TS status.
Matthew has not been in too much of a healthy environment. Despite the warm GOM waters, shear has been great which has prevented any major development.
Matthew's main threat and possibly only threat will be rain. Sustained winds will possibly not even reach TS force {if he doesn't make it back to a TS}. Several inches of rain are anticipated. The faster Matthew moves, the less of a flooding potential.
Matthew is the 13th named storm of the season.
Here is my current forecast on Matthew:
Today: Fighting for his life. Dumping rains on areas East of center. Max Winds: 40 mph
Sunday: Making landfall in Louisiana as a minimal TS or a strong TD. Max Winds: 40 mph
Monday: Becoming a remnant low rather quick, dumping rain on Arkansas and Tennessee. Max Winds: 25 mph
The forecast from the NHC on Matthew doesn't even go 5 days, so neither will we.
Track and intensity forecasts are subject to errors... some by as much as several 100 miles.
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making critical decisions. Especially life or death decisions. For more details, please listen to local media outlets or the NHC
As always.. comments are welcomed
