Matthew will bring NEW ORLEANS Heavy Rains Now

[TS Zack]

The track has shifted West of us, the worst possible track for New Orleans. Our rain will not go away it looks now, maybe a break for couple hours then we will start recieving squalls later tonight.

My hats off to Derek Ortt, this storm just caps why he should be MOTM!

[PTPatrick]

True enough...but I dont think it will be far enough west of NOLA to cause huge problems. I think at this point the heaviest rain and nasty weather will be confined to down around Bootheville, Mississippi , Alabama, and Pensacola to Panama City.

[TS Zack]

I think we may see Tropical Storm Matthew when the RECONN goes out. Look at the explosion of convection.

[lilbump3000]

PtPatrick, were the NHC has this system going inland at, all of SE louisiana, mississippi, alabama, and the western florida panhandle will be in the worst of the weather.

[baygirl_1]

Am I wrong--- it appears he may be trying to wrap some convection around that previously open center??
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
If so, he's a tenacious little bigger in the face of that shear.
Also, I just read this from our Mobile NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2004

.SHORT TERM...LATEST DISCUSSION FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (TPC) INDICATES TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED AND COULD POSSIBLY BE DECLARED A DEPRESSION OR LESS BY MIDDAY TODAY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE REMNANTS OF T.S. MATTHEW INLAND NEAR GULFPORT BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH 25G35KTS OF WIND. THIS FORECAST AND TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GFS WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERN TRACK...MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST LA AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE WET SIDE WITH A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS STILL EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ONTO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS POSTED. COULD SEE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITIES RESULT IN A FEW MESO'S DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
THE COASTAL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SO WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ALABAMA AND NW FLORIDA COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES AND ANY COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY NIGHT... LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A
DRY NW FLOW FOR TUESDAY.

The rain, well, I guess we can take that. I don't like the sound of "mesos." Those could really wreak havoc on these debris piles and blue tarped roofs. I hope Matthew's convection doesn't get going, again, but the satellite is a bit concerning. Anyone with more skill and knowledge than I, please share your thoughts! Thanks!

[Stormcenter]

True enough...but I dont think it will be far enough west of NOLA to cause huge problems. I think at this point the heaviest rain and nasty weather will be confined to down around Bootheville, Mississippi , Alabama, and Pensacola to Panama City.

Not based on the continuing development of convection
around the TDs center.