evening matt forecast... still 50KT at LA/MS

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl142004forecast.html

[mikey mike]

So that will put it on my doorstep here on the MS Gulf Coast around Sunday a.m. [/code]

[Derek Ortt]

graphics now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl142004graphics.html

need the turn to occur when it does and not any earlier, or else NO will be getting some serious rainfall from this storm

[mikey mike]

sorry bout that code thing at the end.musta hit by mistake

[Derek Ortt]

if this track verifies, the center would be near you sunday morning, but the weather would then be east of you. MS will likely get the worst overnight saturday as the center is SW since the effects are NW of the center

[mikey mike]

NO can't take too much serious rain.We need some serious rain here.Ivan never gave us that much rain so I'm hoping for a slow event.

[BamaMan]

Derek, Mobile would also be very close to the worst of what matthew has to offer also, right?

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl142004forecast.html

Derek looking at the latest satellite loop
makes me believe you have something there.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

[Ixolib]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl142004forecast.html

Derek looking at the latest satellite loop
makes me believe you have something there.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

Why do you believe that? I see the convection shift to the N or NNW ever so slightly - is that what you saying?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Derek, Mobile would also be very close to the worst of what matthew has to offer also, right?

Looks like it's going to be a rainy one, and it sure looks to put a dent in my weekend plans. We need a little rain, but not as much as we're probably going to get. I guess I'll just kick back and watch some ball games....if the satellite doesn't kaput.

[wxman57]

I don't know, Derek. I don't see any indications of decreasing shear beyond 24 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if Matthew's convection became more and more separated from an exposed LLC as time goes on. I really doubt it'll maintain TS strength up to landfall.

[ColdFront77]

Wind shear was 50 to 75 knots in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday... they are now down to 25 to 50 knots.
The trend has decreased 5 to 10 knots in the eastern Gulf and increased 5 knots across the western Gulf.

[Rainband]

if this track verifies, the center would be near you sunday morning, but the weather would then be east of you. MS will likely get the worst overnight saturday as the center is SW since the effects are NW of the center

you mean ne right?? of the center I mean

[bayfred]

Derek, Mobile would also be very close to the worst of what matthew has to offer also, right?

Looks like it's going to be a rainy one, and it sure looks to put a dent in my weekend plans. We need a little rain, but not as much as we're probably going to get. I guess I'll just kick back and watch some ball games....if the satellite doesn't kaput.

Gee, is there any football on that you might enjoy?

[wxman57]

Wind shear was 50 to 75 knots in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday... they are now down to 25 to 50 knots.
The trend has decreased 5 to 10 knots in the eastern Gulf and increased 5 knots across the western Gulf.

So 25-50 kt wind shear is favorable for development? That wind shear was north of Matthew yesterday, but now Matthew is heading northward toward the increasing shear.

[ColdFront77]

I never implied 25 to 50 knot wind shear was favorable for development. I am mentioning the decrease since yesterday.

[wxman57]

I never implied 25 to 50 knot wind shear was favorable for development. I am mentioning the decrease since yesterday.

Yeah, I know, but it's going to take one heck of a decreasing shear trend to allow Matthew to remain intact up to landfall. As of the past 4-6 hours, it looks like the center is becoming more broad and being separated farther from the convection.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not forecasting intensification through the normal barotropic processes. This is partially baroclinic. The intensificiation is being driven more by QG principles (went into them in the first forecast at 2100) than by our typical mechanisms