Is Matthew Turning?

[boca]

Is he turning from E to NE to NNE? Looks that way to me.

[lilbump3000]

Looks like one to me as well, but we will have to see if this trend continues.

[Rainband]

still looks east to me. Hope it does turn. we don't need anymore.

[TS Zack]

I don't see it moving East anymore maybe NNE but really hard to tell. Just watch and wait but what a heck of a burst of convection occuring.

[Stormcenter]

Is he turning from E to NE to NNE? Looks that way to me.

Yes it does but as always we have to wait and see what
the NHC says.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

[boca]

Rainband look at thishttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DAT ... -loop.html

[boca]

sorry, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ColdFront77]

The last few frames of a satellite loop are more an optical illusion than noticing actually direction. Even worse with systems in this phase. Need to see the coming half hour images to see if it's a trend.

[WeatherEmperor]

No no no. Its just the illusion effect created by the convection shape it is taking on. It is going still ENE.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

It could be lifting a little more ENE now, but the reason you are seeing turning is because the CDO is taking a curved band shape and is starting to wrap. This should be followed by incremental windspeed increases.

That's quite a burst!

[wxman57]

No no no. Its just the illusion effect created by the convection shape it is taking on. It is going still ENE.

<RICKY>

Correct. Don't watch the heavy convection, that's not the center. Look to the west at the very faint low clouds. The LLC actually appears to be moving to the east or even east-southeast. In fact, it appears that the convection is being ripped away from the broad LLC by increasing southwesterly shear.

[Stormsfury]

IR2 channel is about the best we have during nighttime hours...

Easterly movement, and not real fast ... and this thing's entraining some dry air (more mid-level and SFC based) on the western flank ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Watch the WV loop and watch the area WEST of the center dry up and on the eastern side, watch the explosion of deep purples (time sensitive) ... 10 PM ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Sanibel]

The last frame shows a 'tear-drop' shape with the 'tail' being on the SE side. Instead of increasing shear, I'd be watching for potential wrapping and speed increases...

Watch the red burst. It is usually the best indicator. Right now it is growing with deep reds while appearing to transform into a banding process...

[Stormcenter]

It's really hard to tell with this poorly exposed center.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

[sea oat]

still looks east to me. Hope it does turn. we don't need anymore.

We don't need anymore here in the panhandle of Florida either. Send it to LA or MS!!!

[Scorpion]

Ugh, like I keep telling everyone, DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. Even in Ivan affected areas, it will hardly do a thing. Jeanne hit the same area as Frances, and tarps survived. Jeanne was a 105 kt storm, this is 35. Please do not get worked up. Its a minimial TS. Nothing more. If this turns into a cane, then I get to eat crow the rest of the year .

[Rainband]

Ugh, like I keep telling everyone, DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. Even in Ivan affected areas, it will hardly do a thing. Jeanne hit the same area as Frances, and tarps survived. Jeanne was a 105 kt storm, this is 35. Please do not get worked up. Its a minimial TS. Nothing more. If this turns into a cane, then I get to eat crow the rest of the year .

Some areas don't need RAIN either chill out and have some respect for those with no roofs

[feederband]

Ugh, like I keep telling everyone, DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. Even in Ivan affected areas, it will hardly do a thing. Jeanne hit the same area as Frances, and tarps survived. Jeanne was a 105 kt storm, this is 35. Please do not get worked up. Its a minimial TS. Nothing more. If this turns into a cane, then I get to eat crow the rest of the year .

I don't think i would under estimate this thing. Even minimal ts can be a killer.

[Derek Ortt]

I've done a center rix using GARP and I have nearly a due north motion over the last 3 hours. I went with 24.9N and 93.7W for the 11 p.m. update location.

NHC actually does not give current positions in their advisories. Instead, they use 3 hour forecast positions based upon the official fixes at synoptic time. The only time you get a real position are in the intermediate advisory locations

[JenyEliza]

Ugh, like I keep telling everyone, DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. Even in Ivan affected areas, it will hardly do a thing. Jeanne hit the same area as Frances, and tarps survived. Jeanne was a 105 kt storm, this is 35. Please do not get worked up. Its a minimial TS. Nothing more. If this turns into a cane, then I get to eat crow the rest of the year .

Some areas don't need RAIN either chill out and have some respect for those with no roofs

Or people who are still trying to dry their home out and kill all the mold left behind from Frances, Ivan and Jeanne's flooding rains. (raises hand here).

Jeny