BREAKING NEWS=5PM-TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS

[N2Storms]

If that forecast track verifies, then Florida will see little and nothing, depending on location.


With all due respect the Panhandle is still considered part of Florida and according to the NHC report Tropical Storm force winds extend outward 175 miles from the East and Northeast of the center which means that a considerable portion of the Panhandle will get a substantial amount of rain, probably not so much wind.

[ColdFront77]

That is why I said "little or nothing." I by no means meant "little" to mean extreme 'low level' activity.

[Sanibel]

It's frustrating when you've been seeing this all morning and they suddenly catch up after way underplaying what was obviously there all along...

[Scorpion]

Please a severe thunderstorm is more of a threat than this. Why are people panicking and stuff. This is not going to cause any damage.

[Hyperstorm]

Sanibel,

I understand your point.

Scorpion,

What is your point?

[BillC]

Sanibel, your point really was very clear. I understand.

I think there is way too much certainty being expressed here ... that either Derek and/or the Tropical Prediction Center have it right. I'm not at all certain that any of us have a clue at this point about the track or intensity of Matthew. My impression is that more is being said than is known. It is certainly a free country -- and a relatively free board -- but folks would have more credibility with me if they were a little more humble and a tad less certain at such an early stage in the development and evolution of this system.

[kevin]

Just watch in amazement Bill. I've got high confidence in it being very close to both of their tracks.

[vbhoutex]

Please a severe thunderstorm is more of a threat than this. Why are people panicking and stuff. This is not going to cause any damage.

No one is panicing that I see, just expressing their displeasure with having to deal with another tropical system after having an already tough hurricane season. I understand where they are at completely.

You are probably right about the damage, but water also damages and some areas are still at or above flood stage and and extra water will only exacerbate a bad situation. Literally thousands still do not have a reliable roof and some not even tarps. They need 3"-5" of rain like they need another hole in their roof.

[vbhoutex]

It's frustrating when you've been seeing this all morning and they suddenly catch up after way underplaying what was obviously there all along...

NHC will not and can not make a call without the hard data they had to collect with recon all across the area. We are not making calls here that could directly affect peoples lives and property. We are not an official source for information. They are.

To many of us, with the tools available to us, it appeared obvious that there was a TD at a minimum and indeed there was.

No matter how NHC had called it today they would have been criticized. To me, especially after the many explanations offered here on Storm2k concerning the parameters they must deal with, it is quite tiring to hear the same old NHC should have done this, NHC should have done that. JMHO.

[Sanibel]

Sounds like all you are saying there is that it was obvious to even amateurs and they weren't calling it...

Any thoughts on why the floater isn't on it STILL???

[vbhoutex]

Sounds like all you are saying there is that it was obvious to even amateurs and they weren't calling it...

Any thoughts on why the floater isn't on it STILL???

Twist my words how you want. I think I was obvious in what I said and I refuse to turn it into an argument.

As far as the floater not being on it I haven't a clue. The only person I know that "controls"(or at least seems to control) that floater is Dixibreeze.

[tronbunny]

gee, Sanibel..
I think what vbhoutex is saying (please correct me if I'm wrong) is that we have no way of knowing what is discussed at NHC that is not expressed publicly.
You should know they're in there doing the same things we do..and thensome.
I guarantee there are arguments about what, where,when and how long before the public hears.

[vbhoutex]

gee, Sanibel..
I think what vbhoutex is saying (please correct me if I'm wrong) is that we have no way of knowing what is discussed at NHC that is not expressed publicly.
You should know they're in there doing the same things we do..and thensome.
I guarantee there are arguments about what, where,when and how long before the public hears.

Pretty close tb. I am basically saying they do not have the luxury of making a call based on as little information as we do. NHC does have a true responsibility that we at STORM2K or on any other weather site do not have. They are the official source of information for the public and at this point I refer you back to my post about why they can't always call a system when we think they should.

You are more than right about the arguments TB. If you have ever talked to any of them you will find out that there are often differences of opinion. That is one reason some of the forecasts seem to or do vary from forecaster to forecaster.

[Rainband]

Excellent points David

[Sanibel]

They judge storms by visual observation all the time. If this is the case there's no reason they couldn't include something as simple as "at this time the system resembles a tropical depression but we are waiting for reconaissance to confirm...

[tronbunny]

Sanibel,
they can't afford to broadcast this is what it "looks like" too far in advance, for credibility issues.
If they made public what they toss around until hard data confirms, they would look to the public like amateurs in a discussion board!