00:00 UTC Model suite=45 mph,moving 45 degrees 8kt

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

  TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW    (AL142004) ON 20041009  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041009  0000   041009  1200   041010  0000   041010  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    24.5N  93.8W   26.3N  90.4W   28.6N  87.0W   31.1N  83.8W
  BAMM    24.5N  93.8W   25.8N  91.5W   27.5N  88.8W   29.8N  86.7W
  A98E    24.5N  93.8W   26.0N  92.6W   27.9N  90.2W   29.2N  88.0W
  LBAR    24.5N  93.8W   25.7N  92.3W   26.7N  90.8W   27.5N  89.7W
  SHIP        40KTS          46KTS          50KTS          53KTS
  DSHP        40KTS          46KTS          50KTS          53KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041011  0000   041012  0000   041013  0000   041014  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    32.8N  79.6W   28.8N  70.8W   24.5N  64.1W   24.8N  56.5W
  BAMM    32.5N  85.4W   37.1N  83.4W   40.3N  81.7W   46.5N  79.8W
  A98E    31.1N  86.0W   32.7N  81.8W   34.1N  74.5W   38.7N  66.3W
  LBAR    28.3N  88.9W   28.9N  86.2W   26.9N  81.9W   25.6N  76.4W
  SHIP        52KTS          40KTS          29KTS          21KTS
  DSHP        52KTS          30KTS          27KTS          27KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  24.5N LONCUR =  93.8W DIRCUR =  45DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
  LATM12 =  24.0N LONM12 =  95.4W DIRM12 =  83DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  23.2N LONM24 =  96.4W
  WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  100NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

So 45 mph at the 10 PM CDT advisory.

[PurdueWx80]

And for those who enjoy visuals...

[tronbunny]

what the heck is that NHC track????
switchback?
oh, and LBAR... really?

[HURAKAN]

Will Matthew have the opportunity and enviromental conditions to reach hurricane status? I don't know but we will see.

[ColdFront77]

The National Hurricane Center 4:00 PM CDT / 5:00 PM EDT forecast track is the red line into the
Florida panhandle. It is indicated in the legend above the map... in the lower left-hand corner.

[FritzPaul]

what the heck is that NHC track????
switchback?
oh, and LBAR... really?

The current NHC forecast track.

[feederband]

Dont forget the BAMD its got it going to africa .lol....

[ColdFront77]

The combination of model consensus we have access to, indicate a more eastward point of landfall, rather than westward.

[tronbunny]

The National Hurricane Center 4:00 PM CDT / 5:00 PM EDT forecast track is the red line into the
Florida panhandle. It is indicated in the legend above the map... in the lower left-hand corner.

yes, and in my display it's a double line looking like a switchback after it comes in near the Ivan landfall and going back out into GOM.
that is what I was marvelling at.

[lurkerinthemidst]

I see the same thing tron.
I was think ... What type of wall is this storm going to hit to turn around and come back. Highly irregular! Oh well I am just a newbie and do not claim to know ANYTHING. Just thought it was odd too.

[ColdFront77]

There are pretty much always models that have wacky forecast tracks. The LBAR is one.

[Dean4Storms]

That NHC track depicted in the graphic above is off. The NHC has it coming over Ft. Walton Bch. not Pensacola, P'Cola is 60-70 miles further west. Not that this is any big deal, just didn't want someone in P'Cola thinking tonight that the NHC has them in the bullseye as of yet anyways.

[tronbunny]

the earlier version of that SFWMD map had a double line for the NHC track that went in at Fort Walton and back out to GOM over p'cola and east AL.