Indian River's McCollum: Prepare for 'big rain

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Indian River's McCollum: Prepare for 'big rain event early next week'

By Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management Coordinator
October 8, 2004

A large area of thunderstorms that has been meandering over the southwest Gulf of Mexico is getting better organized. If there is a center, it appears to be just east of Brownsville, Texas.

This system has been moving northeast at a slow pace for the past 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center has dispatched a plane to investigate the area. This may be more of a hybrid low pressure system rather than a true tropical cyclone.


Winds of up to 40 mph have been reported over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which would be 500 miles or so from the likely center. Because of the large wind field, this is likely more of a gale low pressure system. Regardless, tropical development may occur over the next 24 hours.

The large area of rain over the Gulf of Mexico is moving northeast towards Mississippi. Flooding is already occurring in the northern Gulf states.

A visible satellite picture shows a low pressure area west of the large mass of clouds. An infrared picture shows a large amount of rain activity associated with this low pressure area. This rain activity is moving northeast. A water vapor picture shows numerous steering currents over North America. The radar shows the strong weather already moving over the northern Gulf states.

The question is which current will make it far enough south to steer this low-pressure system. It is too early to say today. The overall opinion of the models suggest a continued north-northeast movement over the next 48 hours. Then, there are some models suggesting an easterly turn late Monday or Tuesday and other models suggesting a continued northeasterly track throughout the five-day forecast. Bottom line, all of this moisture could move over areas as far west as Louisiana or as far east as the Tampa Bay/Cedar Key area.

Although this area has not organized yet, it warrants our attention throughout the weekend. While wind will likely not be an issue for the east coast of Florida (even if this system develops into a tropical cyclone), we may see a large amount of rainfall beginning Monday or Tuesday. It will all depend on the forward motion after 48 hours. If this becomes a tropical depression, I will begin normal daily updates on all of the forecast information. For now, everyone should monitor this system and be prepared for the possibility of a big rain event early next week.

Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management