NHC discussion on Matthew very interesting!

[Stormcenter]

This is why I'm buying into Dereks forecast.
In my opinion it makes more sense.


The initial motion is 085/9...with the center following the deep
convection through much of the day today. There is considerable
uncertainty regarding the future course and strength of Matthew.
Global model guidance indicates the formation of a separate
baroclinically forced low center in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico...and the beginnings of this low are already apparent in the
surface observations. If this occurs...and Matthew survives as a
separate entity...it could take a gently curving path around the
periphery of the new low. This is the scenario indicated by the
simpler steering models such as the BAM family of models. The GFDL
shows a much sharper turn to the north...while the
GFS...UKMET...and Canadian models show only the developing
baroclinic low...which spends most of the next 2-3 days over
Louisiana. The official forecast leans towards the BAM
guidance...in part because this guidance appears to be more
consistent with current trends...but I am not real comfortable
being so far away from the normally good-performing global
guidance.
There is moderate shear over Matthew now...and global guidance
indicates that this shear will increase...at least over the western
Gulf. If the track forecast is wrong and Matthew ends up moving
more to the north...it would likely find itself in an environment
unfavorable for strengthening. A more leisurely track across the
central or eastern Gulf would afford more of an opportunity for
development.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/2100z 24.2n 93.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 24.6n 92.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 25.3n 91.1w 35 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 26.3n 89.2w 35 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 28.0n 87.5w 35 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 32.0n 86.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 12/1800z...dissipated

[TampaFl]

Not good for East Gulf residences if it continues to move more to the e or ene.

Robert

[ColdFront77]

The models are futher south and east as the NHC.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is why I'm buying into Dereks forecast.
In my opinion it makes more sense.


The initial motion is 085/9...with the center following the deep
convection through much of the day today. There is considerable
uncertainty regarding the future course and strength of Matthew.
Global model guidance indicates the formation of a separate
baroclinically forced low center in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico...and the beginnings of this low are already apparent in the
surface observations. If this occurs...and Matthew survives as a
separate entity...it could take a gently curving path around the
periphery of the new low. This is the scenario indicated by the
simpler steering models such as the BAM family of models. The GFDL
shows a much sharper turn to the north...while the
GFS...UKMET...and Canadian models show only the developing
baroclinic low...which spends most of the next 2-3 days over
Louisiana. The official forecast leans towards the BAM
guidance...in part because this guidance appears to be more
consistent with current trends...but I am not real comfortable
being so far away from the normally good-performing global
guidance.
There is moderate shear over Matthew now...and global guidance
indicates that this shear will increase...at least over the western
Gulf. If the track forecast is wrong and Matthew ends up moving
more to the north...it would likely find itself in an environment
unfavorable for strengthening. A more leisurely track across the
central or eastern Gulf would afford more of an opportunity for
development.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/2100z 24.2n 93.8w 35 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 24.6n 92.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 25.3n 91.1w 35 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 26.3n 89.2w 35 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 28.0n 87.5w 35 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 32.0n 86.0w 20 kt...inland
96hr VT 12/1800z...dissipated

Yea it tells me thier clueless and they are guessing like with Jeanne...4 hrs before landfall and they were still off 60 miles...

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the NHC Brings it right by to my west over Ft. Walton Bch., so the highest winds would be right here, GREAT!

[Scorpion]

Yeah, if I were you I'd be excited. Its fun to be out on the beach with 40 mph winds. Good day for surfing or flying a kite .

[Dean4Storms]

Yeah, if I were you I'd be excited. Its fun to be out on the beach with 40 mph winds. Good day for surfing or flying a kite .

Actually I'm concerned over the plastic I have stapled down over the hole in my roof from Ivan. Think I'm going to go get some of that spray foam and get up in the attic and take care of that hole from the inside.

[kevin]

Good idea Dean. That spray foam stuff is indestructable.

[feederband]

the only good thing so far is no one is say it will be stonger than a ts. but who knows time will tell...

[QueenBee]

If does not feel comfortable with predicting the forcast ouside of the usual models. Why did he do it? Why make a prediction if you are not comfortable with it. I feel that the forcast is bogus.

[Janie34]

If does not feel comfortable with predicting the forcast ouside of the usual models. Why did he do it? Why make a prediction if you are not comfortable with it. I feel that the forcast is bogus.

The baroclinic low pressure system to Matthew's north is wreaking havoc with the forecast at the moment. Evidently the forecaster feels that the models are not handling the possible interaction of these two systems very well. In that situation, a forecaster has to rely on other tools at her/his disposal.

In any case, we have a tropical cyclone out in the Gulf and there has to be a forecast. There are plenty of oil rigs and mariners out there and they need to have pertinent and timely information....not to mention those of us along the coast who still have damage from Ivan. The forecast must be made, thats the mission of the NHC/NWS. Not every forecast will have a high level of confidence, in fact, I'd say those types of forecasts are pretty rare.