Moving East

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Moving East

#1 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:42 am

After reading several threads concerning this I had to open a new post. The center of this system is moving due east at this time from several different views of satellite loops. I observed the initiation of this last night in another post. NHC is simply wrong...
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#2 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:45 am

Yeah it does appear to be moving E or maybe ever so slightly ENE its still a bit hard to tell.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#3 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:48 am

I will be interested in finding out if it is eastward motion or the circulation relocating more towards the convection. Developing stages can be deceiving at times.
0 likes   
Top
Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:49 am

If it is East.. that'd keep it over water a little longer perhaps and cause it to grow
0 likes   
Top
QueenBee
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:21 pm

#5 Postby QueenBee » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:53 am

The clouds are being sheared east. The eye of the storm is still near the Texas coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5937
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#6 Postby MGC » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:58 am

The exposed center appears to be moving ENE as far as I can tell.....Fla panhandle?............MGC
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#7 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:59 am

No. Dean and I agree the center has to be the center of the low level spiral clearly banded under the very western edge of the east-sliding convection mass. This is required by weather science.

You'll see NHC shift soon...
0 likes   
Top
QueenBee
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 5:21 pm

#8 Postby QueenBee » Fri Oct 08, 2004 11:59 am

MGC prove it!
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#9 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:01 pm

QueenBee wrote:MGC prove it!


No offense but I dont think MGC has to prove anything. The satellite pics can speak for themselves. Just go to the visible loops and see them for yourself. It appears and hence the word appears to be drifting E or ENE.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Pigsnibble
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:38 am

#10 Postby Pigsnibble » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:09 pm

If you just look at the last 4 frames....it does appear that the convection is east of the the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

But the whole mass looks to be moving eastish....or so it appears.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Hmmmmm

#11 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:16 pm

This post sounds like it has a touch of W word
in it. Haven't you guys from Florida had enough
this season? :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#12 Postby Rainband » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:19 pm

Speaking for myself, yes we have.
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#13 Postby Guest » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:21 pm

Looks like the exposed circ is moving ESE Keys? We are in need of some decent surf.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Pigsnibble
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:38 am

#14 Postby Pigsnibble » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:21 pm

Actually my tropical season has been somewhat typical.....and don't really anticipate anything changing that...including this.

Thought I was just stating my observations.

.....now move along, this isn't the W you'r looking for.
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#15 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
QueenBee wrote:MGC prove it!


No offense but I dont think MGC has to prove anything. The satellite pics can speak for themselves. Just go to the visible loops and see them for yourself. It appears and hence the word appears to be drifting E or ENE.

<RICKY>


yep. the most important thing about this system is where the convection is going not the center because there isnt going to be an eyewall or anything like that so i dont care if the center is heading due west the convenction now is heading ene or east. case closed. there is going to be rain and a little wind but nothing that anyone on the gulf coast hasnt seen before. again, it doesnt matter where the center is for this sytem..all that matters where the direction the shear is sending the rains.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Sean in New Orleans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
Contact:
Contact Sean in New Orleans

#16 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:25 pm

It's just a bunch of heavy rain...I don't really care where it goes...it's offering no winds, no damage, just a steady rain with embedded periods of heavy rain...I'm getting under its' weather.. really nasty weather.
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#17 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:26 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:It's just a bunch of heavy rain...I don't really care where it goes...it's offering no winds, no damage, just a steady rain with embedded periods of heavy rain...I'm getting under its' weather.. really nasty weather.


exactly what i have been saying
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#18 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:27 pm

The system is clearly moving east to anyone who knows how to read satellites. Others will have to wait for NHC to say it I guess.

My last look suggests a possibility of even a degree or so south of east in the last frame...
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#19 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:31 pm

I believe anyone saying there won't be an eyewall is taking the outlier with this development. Look at the burst. Deep blow-ups can be telegraphers of potential sometimes. Logic dictates hybrid rain systems are spread out and don't center burst.

The center has blown-off with shear, but is moving east. This will spin up if it either gains power or lessens in shear...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#20 Postby chris_fit » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:34 pm

The convection on the east side looks mean if you ask me. If that ever wraps around we all could be shocked!
After all, we have been suprised many times this season already.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 215 guests